Political curve balls

In early February of this year, I wrote a column that described how quickly the 1992 national campaign shifted in favor from incumbent Pres. George H.W. Bush with a 90% approval rating to the governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, winning the presidency.

Bush was riding high in the polls from his international assembly of countries to combat Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Domestic concerns shifted the focus of the campaign, and Clinton capitalized on his “It’s the economy, stupid” mantra to secure electoral victory.

I wrote in February:

“The point I wish to drive home is that a lot can happen in a year to completely shift the political landscape. For those who think at this juncture the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch of President Joe Biden versus former President Donald Trump, I say hold on. Today, that’s our apparent matchup, but we have a big roller coaster ride in store.”

That roller coaster ride was on full display in July. An assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, the selection of U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, as Trump’s vice president pick, and the biggest curve ball so far — President Biden’s withdrawal from seeking reelection and pitching his support to his vice president Kamala Harris.

It is a new race now. In my view, it is still Trump’s to lose. He’s up in the polls, has a unified GOP base (that hasn’t always been unified), and has the advantage of a campaign that has been intact and running for months.

Harris will need more time to unify the Democratic Party on issues that divide it, raise money and develop (or co-opt) the Biden campaign apparatus, and pull off a successful national convention. Harris must also develop her message and reintroduce herself to voters who don’t pay attention to vice presidents in the shadows.

It’s a tall order to do all that with less than 100 days left before Nov. 5.

There’s no denying that Biden’s exit has shaken up the race. It has given Democrats new hope and enthusiasm for the election outcome since Biden’s disastrous June debate with Trump. The move to Harris will energize core constituencies in the Democratic tent, including younger voters who were disillusioned with the two choices of old men at the top of the ticket. Down ballot Congressional candidates — who had been outperforming Biden in state polls — no longer see Biden as their albatross.

Trump planned his whole campaign to run against Biden. Now, that calculus changes the focus to Harris, which will (or should) require a different series of messaging. In these early days, Republicans are throwing spaghetti at the walls to see what messages will stick as negatives on Harris. To win, she will need to redefine herself before the GOP does an effective job of it.

You can also expect the negatives from Republicans and Democrats to ramp up in these last 100 days as is typical of most campaigns. Democrats will label Trump as a felon and a threat to democracy, while Republicans highlight Biden — now Harris — as incompetent and wrong for America.

While 100 days to go is a relatively short window, it will feel much longer than it is. This election cycle will be historic for the events that have happened and the depths to which it will sink. I want to also say that 100 days is still a political eternity — I’ve seen a lot of elections won and lost in the last 100 days.

There will still be more curve balls to come: Harris’ vice president pick, a debate moment, another unforeseen event involving health, the Democrats’ convention, an economic pivot or an international development.

With all of the drama we saw in July and for all that is yet to come, remember this first and foremost: The election will likely come down to six swing states and their electoral votes. Those states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Virginia, North Carolina and Nebraska’s one Congressional district may add a couple of bonus swing states to watch.

Keep your eye on the local polling in those key states and learn how to compute the math that calculates the Electoral College vote. That will be what drives most of the messaging and decisions in the 2024 presidential campaign. And that’s where the battle will be won — they don’t call them battleground states for nothing.

Biden was losing in those main swing states by a growing margin. The hope for Democrats is that the shake-up reinvigorates their chances in those states. Republicans must recalculate their plans for maintaining the advantages they currently hold.

One more final thought: As exciting as this race will be for some, as much as you will dread some days between now and November, pay attention to all of it and soak it up. You will be talking about it for the rest of your life. In 2024, you are truly a witness to history.

Editor’s note: Roby Brock is the editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics.