Job numbers up but May jobless rates rise in most Arkansas metros

The four largest Arkansas-based metro areas posted year-over-year net job growth in May with Northwest Arkansas posting the largest percentage increase at 2.5%. Central Arkansas – Little Rock, North Little Rock, Conway – was a close second at 2.24%.

May jobless rates ranged from 2.5% in Northwest Arkansas to 4.5% in the Pine Bluff metro, according to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The May report is preliminary and subject to revisions.

Arkansas’ four largest metro regions – areas with most of the workforce in the state – had a combined 18,455 year-over-year job gains in May, well above Arkansas’ 8,502 job gains in the same period. The metro tally above the state number shows job growth primarily in the state’s larger urban areas.

Central Arkansas – Little Rock, North Little Rock and Conway – had 363,469 employed in May, up 7,982 jobs, or 2.24%, from the 355,487 in May 2023. The metro had 11,538 unemployed, up from 8,768 in May 2023. Northwest Arkansas, the state’s second largest metro area, had an estimated 312,129 jobs in May, up 7,615 jobs, or 2.5%, from the 304,514 in May 2023. The metro had 7,875 unemployed, up from 6,844 in May 2023.

The Fort Smith metro, Arkansas’ third largest metro, had an estimated 117,670 jobs in May, up 1,788 jobs, or 1.5%, from 115,882 in May 2023. Regional employment remains well below the peak of 124,098 in June 2006. The metro had 4,364 unemployed, up from 3,681 in May 2023. The Jonesboro metro had an estimated 66,321 jobs in May, up 1.6% compared with the 65,261 in May 2023. The metro had 1,990 unemployed, up from 1,725 in May 2023.

Dr. Michael Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock’s Institute for Economic Advancement, noted growth trends in the state’s metro areas.

“Over the longer run, employment growth trends have diverged considerably. Over the past year Fayetteville continues to be the most rapidly growing metro area in the state, followed by Little Rock and Fort Smith. Growth in Jonesboro slowed in 2022 and 2023, but has picked up thus far in 2024. Hot Springs is down slightly over the past 12 months, and has seen little growth since mid 2022. Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana remain in the doldrums, with employment levels lower than at the onset of the Covid Contraction,” Pakko said in this note.

NATIONAL NUMBERS
Unemployment rates were higher in May than a year earlier in 269 of the 389 metro areas, lower in 83 areas, and unchanged in 37 areas, noted the BLS report. A total of 91 areas had jobless rates of less than 3% and 5 areas had rates of at least 8%. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 44 metro areas, decreased in 1 area, and was essentially unchanged in 344 areas.

The U.S. unemployment rate in May was 3.7%, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.4% a year earlier.

In May, Burlington-South Burlington, Vt., and Sioux Falls, S.D., had the lowest unemployment rates at 1.7% each. The next lowest rate was in Portsmouth, N.H.-Maine, at 1.8%. El Centro, Calif., had the highest rate at 15.4%. A total of 212 areas had May jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 3.7%, 162 areas had rates above it, and 15 areas had rates equal to that of the nation.

METRO JOBS DATA
Following are labor market data for the eight metro areas.
• Northwest Arkansas
Labor force
May 2024: 320,004
May 2023: 311,358

Employment
May 2024: 312,129
May 2023: 304,514

Unemployed
May 2024: 7,875
May 2023: 6,844

Jobless rate
May 2024: 2.5%
May 2023: 2.2%

• Fort Smith metro (Arkansas-Oklahoma)
Labor force
May 2024: 122,034
May 2023: 119,563

Employment
May 2024: 117,670
May 2023: 115,882

Unemployed
May 2024: 4,364
May 2023: 3,681

Jobless rate
May 2024: 3.6%
May 2023: 3.1%

• Hot Springs
Labor force
May 2024: 41,383
May 2023: 41,763

Employment
May 2024: 39,920
May 2023: 40,352

Unemployed
May 2024: 1,463
May 2023: 1,411

Jobless rate
May 2024: 3.5%
May 2023: 3.4%

• Jonesboro
Labor force
May 2024: 68,311
May 2023: 66,986