NWA 18th fastest growing U.S. metro; Benton County leads state’s growth

Northwest Arkansas, or the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro, remained the fastest-growing metro in the state in 2023. Benton County was the state’s fastest-growing county.

On Thursday (March 14), the U.S. Census Bureau released metro area and county population estimates as of July 1, 2023.

Alison Wright, data center division head of the Arkansas Economic Development Institute (AEDI), said the metro estimates were expected with the continued growth in Northwest Arkansas. The metro was the 18^th fastest-growing in the United States. Its population rose by 2.3% to 590,337 in 2023 from 576,967 in 2022. The growth rate rank was up from 24^th in the previous year. Northwest Arkansas had the 32^nd largest population gain in the nation at 13,370. The rank was down from 30^th in the previous year.

“That’s what we imagined happening because we see all the counties in that (metro) growing so rapidly,” Wright said.

As the second-most populous in the state, Benton County is the 234^th most populous U.S. county. It’s the 118^th fastest growing at 2.7% and had the 45^th largest population gain at 8,191 in 2023. Washington County is the 277^th most populous county in the United States. It’s the 249^th fastest growing at 1.9% and had the 100^th largest population gain at 4,867 in 2023.

The Northwest Arkansas metro remained the 98^th most populous U.S. metro in 2023, the new estimates show. In 2022, it jumped three spots to become the 98^th most populous. The metro’s year-over-year population growth rate was 2.4% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022.

As the state’s most populous, the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro remains the 80^th most populous metro in the United States. In 2021, it fell one spot to 80^th and has maintained that rank since then.

The Fort Smith metro slipped one spot to become the 206^th most populous U.S. metro. The Jonesboro metro jumped one spot to become the 304^th most populous. The Hot Springs metro, which had more deaths than births, fell one spot to become the 364^th most populous.

Wright said net migration is largely driving the growth in the metro areas. Net migration accounts for more people moving in than moving out, and the majority comprises domestic migration. In metros that are growing, net migration is more than double the natural increase or more births than deaths.

Nationwide, the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro was the largest with more than 19.49 million residents. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, metro had the largest population increase, adding 152,598 residents in 2023. The fastest growing metro in 2023 was Wildwood-The Villages, Fla., metro at 4.7%.

Wright said the population rose in 39 Arkansas counties in 2023, the same number that gained residents in 2022.

“The top 10 most populous counties stayed the same, but Sebastian (County) now has moved down to sixth instead of fourth where it was,” she said. “Faulkner and Saline (counties) jumped it, so they’re now four and five…But it’s [Sebastian] still in the top 10.”

Sebastian had more births than deaths, but the negative net migration exceeded the positive natural change, Wright said. Negative net migration means that more people are moving from the county than moving into it. In 2023, the population of Sebastian County, the 510^th most populous county in the United States, fell by 11.

Meanwhile, Faulkner and Saline counties are growing and account for a greater share of the Little Rock metro’s population growth than some of the metro’s other counties that are also growing. Faulkner is the 505^th most populous county in the United States. It’s the 257^th fastest growing at 1.9% and had the 220^th largest population gain at 2,386 in 2023. Saline County is the 508^th most populous county in the United States. It’s the 306^th fastest growing at 1.7% and had the 240^th largest population gain at 2,159 in 2023.

Like Sebastian County, Pulaski County also has a negative net migration or more people moving out than in. But unlike Sebastian County, Pulaski County’s positive natural change more than offset the number of people leaving. Pulaski County, the most populous in Arkansas, is the 187^th most populous county in the United States. It’s the 1,651^st fastest growing at 0.2% and had the 547^th largest population gain at 622 in 2023.

Craighead County is the 551^st most populous county in the United States. It’s the 672^nd fastest growing at 1% and had the 383^rd largest population gain at 1,130 in 2023.

Among U.S. counties with at least 20,000 people, Kaufman County, Texas, was the fastest growing at 7.6%. The largest gaining was Harris County, Texas, which added 53,788 residents. The most populous was Los Angeles County, Calif., with more than 9.66 million residents.

Following are the population estimates for the state’s most populous metros, with most of their population in Arkansas:
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway:
2023: 764,045
2022: 757,768
2020: 748,990

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers:
2023: 590,337
2022: 576,967
2020: 549,937

Fort Smith:
2023: 231,280
2022: 229,951
2020: 227,207

Jonesboro:
2023: 136,390
2022: 135,316
2020: 134,573

Hot Springs:
2023: 99,784
2022: 99,982
2020: 100,258

Following are the population estimates for the state’s 10 most populous counties:
Pulaski:
2023: 400,009
2022: 399,387
2020: 399,274

Benton:
2023: 311,013
2022: 302,822
2020: 286,618

Washington:
2023: 261,549
2022: 256,682
2020: 246,774

Faulkner:
2023: 129,951
2022: 127,565
2020: 123,820

Saline:
2023: 129,574
2022: 127,415
2020: 123,826

Sebastian:
2023: 129,098
2022: 129,109
2020: 127,808

Craighead:
2023: 113,993
2022: 112,863
2020: 111,619

Garland:
2023: 99,784
2022: 99,982
2020: 100,258

White:
2023: 78,452
2022: 77,616
2020: 76,860

Lonoke:
2023: 75,944
2022: 75,199
2020: 74,055

The Census Bureau plans to release the 2023 estimates for cities and towns in May.