EIA: Solar to lead U.S. electricity generation growth through 2025

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by Jeff Della Rosa ([email protected]) January 10, 2024 11:10 am 613 views 

Solar electric generation is expected to account for 7% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2025, up from 4% in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

On Tuesday (Jan. 9), the EIA released its January Short-Term Energy Outlook that shows almost 80 gigawatts of solar power will start operating in the next two years, increasing U.S. solar generating capacity by 84% and making solar the leading source of growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025.

“We are experiencing a significant shift in U.S. electric generation, as solar generation grows rapidly, taking market share from coal and tempering the growth in natural gas usage,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Coal and natural gas remain important to the U.S. electric grid, even as variable renewable resources such as solar and wind grow.”

Over the next two years, electricity generation from natural gas will be flat from 2023. Coal-fired generation is projected to fall by 9% in 2024 and by 10% in 2025 as costs rise and another 12 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity are retired over the next two years.

Following are other highlights from the Short-Term Energy Outlook:

  • U.S. oil and natural gas production will rise to new records in 2024 and 2025. U.S. crude oil production will increase to 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025. U.S. dry natural gas production is expected to rise to 105 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 106 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.
  • U.S. gasoline prices are expected to fall from an average of $3.52 per gallon in 2023 to about $3.40 per gallon in 2024 and $3.20 per gallon in 2025.
  • Crude oil prices are projected to be flat in 2024 from last year as OPEC+ continues to limit crude oil production. Prices are expected to fall to $79 per barrel in 2025 as production exceeds slowing demand growth globally.
  • Natural gas prices are expected to rise to an average of $3 per million British thermal units in 2025, up from $2.54 per million British thermal units in 2023. U.S. production growth is expected to be limited by rising prices.
  • U.S. coal production is expected to fall by 26% over the next two years, declining to 430 million short tons in 2025. It’s the lowest production level since the early 1960s.