New report shows core October retail sales up 2.6% over year ago

Consumer spending on retail goods is slowing as retail sales – excluding gas stations and restaurants – fell by 0.8% from September to October, but were up 2.6% from a year ago, according to the new CNBC/National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail Monitor.

The report uses real-time debit and credit card purchase data collected by Affinity Solutions. The Retail Monitor seeks to give a more up-to-date view of actual consumer spending than the U.S. Census Bureau which relies on consumer surveys and is updated as more data is collected. The Census Bureau will report October retail sales on Nov 15.

The Retail Monitor uses data from more than 140 million credit and debit purchases tracked monthly by Affinity. The data, like the Census Bureau report, is not adjusted for inflation which remains elevated in some sectors such as food and apparel through September.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay said its collaboration with CNBC and Affinity on the new report provides comprehensive, granular and timely insights that measure monthly retail sales and gauge the state of the retail industry.

“The Retail Monitor will modernize how retail sales are tracked and measured, and Affinity Solutions’ vast dataset of how, what and where the consumer is spending will identify how key demographics and channels are performing for the industry generally and for specific retail sectors,” Shay noted in the release.

The new report does not provide sales totals in dollars but tracks the percentage increases or decreases monthly and year over year. The Retail Monitor offers a headline monthly and annual look at retail sales performance figures for total retail sales, excluding auto and gas; core retail sales, without auto, gas or restaurants; and retail sector sales data

Economists have wondered how the second Amazon Prime Day in October and other retailers’ recent sales promotions would have pulled forward holiday sales. The NRF report indicates October sales were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis. Online sales did report the biggest gains in the October data of all the other sectors.

Following are year-over-year sales changes through October.
• Online and other non-store sales, up 29.1%
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores, up 8.88%
• Health and personal care stores, up 5.98%
• Food and beverage stores, up 2.59%
• Clothing and accessories stores, up 2.72%
• General merchandise stores, down 1.57%
• Building and garden supply stores, unchanged/flat
• Furniture and home furnishings stores, down 5.24%
• Electronics and appliance stores, down 4.66%