NRF: Import volume expected to improve toward year-end

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to hit its highest level in nearly a year this month as retailers stock up for the winter holidays, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Port and package-delivery labor negotiations that threatened the supply chain at the beginning of the summer have been resolved and retailers are now focused on preparing for the all-important holiday season,” said Johnathon Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “There are always supply challenges to be faced but holiday merchandise is flowing into the country, and we expect to see a smooth shipping season ahead of the winter holiday shopping season.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said double-digit year-over-year decreases in cargo volume this year have come even though consumer spending and U.S. employment have increased.

“Dollar figures for international trade show imports remain in a year-over-year decline and cargo volume shows the same,” Hackett said. “The discrepancy between rising growth in sales and declining cargo volumes is happening because retailers are working their way through inventory built up over the last 12 to 18 months. Cargo growth should resume as inventories are depleted.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.83 million containers in June, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 5.2% from May and down 18.7% year over year. June numbers brought the first half of 2023 to 10.5 million containers, down 22% from the first half of 2022.

Ports have not yet reported July numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million containers, down 12.7% year over year. August is forecast at 2.03 million containers, down 10.2% year over year but the first month since last October to reach 2 million containers.

Hackett expects September container volume to decline 3% from a year ago. October volume is expected to decline 1% from a year ago. Hackett expects volume growth will return in November with 8% uptick in containers and 10.7% more volume in December. Even with the forecast of a strong rebound in late 2023, total container imports would still be down 12.8% from last year.