Report: Fuels consumption to hit global record in 2024; crude oil prices to fall

Energy

by Jeff Della Rosa ([email protected]) January 10, 2023 3:12 pm 1,367 views 

Global liquid fuel consumption is expected to exceed 100 million barrels per day in 2023 before reaching record highs in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Consumption of liquid fuels, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, is projected to average more than 102 million barrels per day in 2024.

The EIA released Tuesday (Jan. 10) the January Short-Term Energy Outlook that shows that even as petroleum consumption increases, crude oil prices are projected to fall through 2023 and 2024 largely because crude oil production will rise in the United States and abroad. International benchmark Brent crude oil prices are projected to be less than $80 per barrel in 2024, more than 20% lower than in 2022.

“Our forecast for global consumption of petroleum depends on uncertain economic conditions — especially in China,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “How China’s economy changes following its reopening from pandemic lockdowns could have a significant impact on global consumption of petroleum products.”

Global liquid fuel consumption previously exceeded 100 million barrels per day in 2019.

Following are other highlights of the Short-Term Energy Outlook:

  • U.S. gasoline prices are projected to fall to an average of $3.10 per gallon in 2024 from $3.30 per gallon in 2023. “Lower crude oil prices are one reason we expect lower gasoline prices, but we also expect that reduced refinery margins will contribute to gasoline prices coming down from 2022 highs,” DeCarolis said.
  • U.S. natural gas prices are projected to fall through 2023 and 2024 as domestic production continues to rise. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to rise amid strong global demand and as more U.S. LNG export facilities open. DeCarolis noted that natural gas production is expected to rise to record highs in 2023 and 2024 in the United States, contributing to lower domestic prices.
  • U.S. electricity generated from coal is expected to fall to 17% in 2024 from 18% in 2023 and 20% in 2022. The share of renewable energy as a source of electricity generation is projected to rise to 26% in 2024. About two-thirds of the rise can be attributed to new utility-scale solar photovoltaic capacity, with most of the remainder from new wind projects.