ICU bed use hits ‘unprecedented’ level; deaths projected to surpass 7,000 by Aug. 30

Gov. Asa Hutchinson said the state had as of Tuesday (Aug. 24) reached an “unprecedented” point at which the state’s ICU bed capacity is full. His announcement comes on the same day a report suggests state case numbers and hospitalizations will increase at least through Sept. 14.

Arkansas Secretary of Health Dr. Jose Romero said just under 50% of ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients, but that percentage is higher than the surge that ended in January.

“It clearly shows that we have an ongoing infection and the infection is significant and severe. … The way out of this … is vaccination,” Romero said of the bed capacity numbers, adding later that the treatment of monoclonal antibodies had so far reduced serious disease among the infected by up to 80%.

Gov. Hutchinson said the full capacity serves as a “cautionary note for everyone,” especially for the unvaccinated. He said there have been 10,950 vaccine doses administered in the previous 24 hours, but “we need that to increase.”

“I share that because everybody should be aware of the strain that this is on our hospitals and the need to get our vaccinations, and how critical our bed space is. It fluctuates day by day, but right now because of the increased number of COVID patients that need that type of ICU care, those beds are full right now,” the governor said.

Gov. Hutchinson said he also was on a call Tuesday morning with the White House Coronavirus Task Force in which it was learned that the earliest availability for booster shots would be Sept. 20.

UAMS PROJECTIONS
Also on Tuesday, the Fay Boozman College of Public Health at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) projected that the state could see around 3,000 new COVID cases a day, rising to a cumulative of 532,846 by Sept. 13. As of Aug. 23, the cumulative total was 436,242.

The UAMS report also projects 7,017 deaths by Aug. 30. Deaths totaled 6,704 as of Aug. 23.

“If our forecasts hold true, Arkansas will cross a new milestone. By Aug. 30, more than 7,000 Arkansans will have died of COVID-19. If this forecast holds true, COVID-19 will have killed more Arkansans than all the wars in the 20th and 21st centuries,” UAMS authors noted in the report.

Following are other key points in the UAMS report.
• The COVID-19 positivity rate in the state remains over 20%, five times the national average.
Although testing rates are low, this is evidence of wide community spread.

• The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 have the highest
number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 19,610 cases, an average of 1,040
cases per day.

• The highest relative growth in cases will be in children 17 and under. The state will see an
additional 10,784 children with COVID by Aug. 30, an increase of 17% over the number
reported on Aug. 15. The greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and under, increasing by 120 hospitalizations or 20%.

• Like cases, the 30-day model is forecasting 131 new hospitalizations in Arkansas on Sept. 14
due to COVID-19. This represents an increase of a third in daily hospitalization in the next
month. The greatest number of patients hospitalized will be adults 35 to 59, increasing by 10% over the number on Aug. 15.

• All counties in Arkansas continue to show low COVID-19 vaccination rates. The greatest
increase in vaccinations in the state was 11% in Sebastian County. However, most counties
increased vaccinations by 2% to 5%.

• A single person with the 1918 flu infected approximately two others. A person with the original COVID-19 strain could infect three others, and a person with HIV four others. The Delta variant can infect seven additional susceptible persons, making it more than twice as infectious as the original COVID-19 strain.

Report authors also cautioned that sending people back to school and Labor Day celebrations will result in surges in numbers five to 10 days after the beginning of each event. The only way to avoid infections, hospitalizations and deaths is to get vaccinated, wear masks and practice social distancing, noted the report. A bright spot in the otherwise dark report was a note about improved medical treatments for the virus.

“Despite deaths due to COVID-19 crossing the 7,000 threshold, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 could be much higher. Improvements in care of COVID-19 patients have significantly decreased the number of patients succumbing to the disease,” noted the report.

‘RIVALRY’ GAME VACCINES, AFGHAN REFUGEES
Arkansas Secretary of Education Johnny Key said Tuesday that just under 300 faculty, staff and students have had to quarantine because of the virus. He said the number is not unexpected, and so far no school districts have had to make modifications to instruction, like going to virtual for some students.

He also said the Department of Education is working with the Arkansas Activities Association to establish vaccine clinics at “regional rivalry football games.” Key said they hope to target 3-4 games each week. Most games begin this week in the 10-week regular season. Playoffs are set to begin the week of Nov. 12.

Gov. Hutchinson also said Tuesday that possible Afghanistan refugee sites in Arkansas are not in the “top tier” of sites around the country that can handle a large number of refugees.

The governor also said he believes more businesses will require vaccines among employees now that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has given full approval to the Pfizer vaccine. However, he said a newly enacted state law prevents him from requiring state employees to be vaccinated.