Retail imports expected to fall 9.4% this year, lowest number since 2016

Retailers are importing less merchandise this year and the annual decline is estimated at 9.4%, the lowest volume since 2016, according to the National Retail Federation.

The trade group estimates imports for the year will be 19.6 million containers TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units), below the total 19.1 million containers imported in 2016. Though the first half of 2020, retail imports are down 10.1% from the same period last year.

“The economy is recovering but retailers are being careful not to import more than they can sell,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF.  “Shelves will be stocked, but this is not the year to be left with warehouses full of unsold merchandise.”

He said the more Congress does to put spending money in consumers’ pockets and provide businesses with liquidity, the sooner the U.S. economy can get back to normal.

Global Port Tracker and Hackett Associates report U.S. ports handled 1.61 million containers in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 4.9% from May but down 10.5% year-over-year. The July imports are estimated at 1.76 million containers down 10.2% year-over-year. August is forecast at 1.81 million containers, down 7.3%. Estimates for September are 1.69 million containers, down 9.5%. In the last quarter of 2020, retail imports are forecast to be down 10.4% in October, down 5.9% in November and falling 9.6% in December.

Gold said August is typically the busiest month of the peak season (July to October) when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays. Given the slowing economy, retailers are ordering less merchandise, Gold said. Amid COVID-19, August’s monthly total would be the lowest peak for the season since 1.73 million containers in 2016. Peak season usually includes the busiest month of the entire year, but in 2020  that was likely January’s 1.82 million containers.

“This year, peak season seems to have been thrown off by the coronavirus pandemic along with just about everything else we consider normal,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “We’ve probably already had our busiest month. And with the pandemic taking a hit on the economy ever since then, peak season is likely to be a disappointment by comparison.”