Youth turnout not evident in Sebastian County early voting

Expectations of a larger turnout in the 2018 mid-term election among younger voters are not proving true in Sebastian County. Not only that, but the number of registered county voters for the 2018 mid-term election cycle is almost 4% lower than the 2014 mid-terms.

Based on numbers from the beginning of early voting (Oct. 22) to 4:30 p.m. Thursday (Nov. 1), there were 941 voters between the ages of 18 and 34, or 7.78% of the 12,106 total votes during that time. Those aged 55 and up totaled 71.1% of the vote, and those between 35 and 54 totaled 21.1% of the vote.

Early voting began Oct. 22, and ends Nov. 5 at 5 p.m. Election day is Nov. 6.

Sebastian County Election Commissioner Lee Webb said the percentages are close to the historical pattern. He also said only 85 “inactive” voters – those who have not voted in the previous two general elections – returned to vote in the 2018 mid-term election. Webb also said 727 registered Republicans and 393 registered Democrats voted in the period measured.

In the 2014 mid-term, the county reported 73,964 registered voters, with 32,029 votes cast, or 43.3% of the registered total. The number of registered voters in the county at the beginning of early voting in 2018 was 71,080, according to the Sebastian County Clerk’s office. That tally is 3.89%, or 2,884 voters, below the number of registered voters in 2014.

A recent report from the Brookings Institution suggested that voter trends are shifting nationwide, with younger voters in a better position to influence election outcomes.

“The 48.1 million baby boomers may have outnumbered millennials two years ago, but those numbers are shifting. While the ranks of the boomers thin out each year, an estimated 8 million more Americans are eligible to vote this year than in 2016,” according to this report.

A recent Pew Research survey found that Gen Xers, Millennials and other younger cohorts make up 59% of eligible voters nationwide.

“Whether Gen X and younger generations will be the majority of voters in the November midterms will depend on how many of those who are eligible actually turn out to vote. In the 2016 presidential election, Gen X and younger generations were a majority of voters. But turnout in midterm elections tends to be significantly lower than in presidential elections, particularly among younger adults,” noted the Pew report.

And a Harvard Poll released Oct. 26 indicated that “young Americans are significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014.” The poll found that 40% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 were likely to vote, up 3% from the same poll in Spring 2018.

But those higher numbers among younger voters, as the aforementioned numbers show, is not the reality in Sebastian County. That disappoints Dr. Williams Yamkam, University of Arkansas at Fort Smith assistant professor of political science and chair of the UAFS American Democracy Project.

“Historically that’s been an issue,” Yamkam said of the lower turnout among the younger demographic. “Am I surprised by it? No. But am I disappointed by it? Yes. And I’m hoping that by Tuesday those early voters will turn out to vote.”

Part of his disappointment is that the university has held several voter registration drives on campus.

“That’s something a lot of people have been trying to figure out, because it’s been going on for decades,” Yamkam said when asked what could turn the trend. “I don’t see a silver bullet for that. … Somehow, young voters don’t necessarily see the impact, or understand the importance of voting.”

Possibly dampening “enthusiasm” of some voters, Yamkam said, is the Republican Party is so strong in Arkansas that young voters who may support Democrat candidates simply don’t vote. He also said politicians typically target advertising and messaging to likely voters, which means they don’t connect with younger voters. As a result, younger voters often say the politicians don’t care about them or their issues.