Arkansas voters split on Trump-Russia cooperation

Arkansas voters are relatively split on President Donald Trump’s campaign ties to the Russian government, but a majority are not ready to impeach him over the matter or call for his resignation at this time.

A new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey shows that voters are keenly aware of the issue.

Q: Do you think the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential election? 

41% Yes
43% No
16% Don’t Know

Q: In light of what is known about the Trump campaign’s relationship with Russia and President Trump’s handling of the issue since he’s been President, should he be removed from office?

40% Yes
49% No
11% Don’t Know

“Arkansans are pretty evenly divided on the Trump campaign’s links to Russia, but they’re not supportive of impeachment or resignation at this juncture,” said Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief. “That said, 8 out of 10, 9 out of 10 Arkansas voters have a definitive opinion on the matter. For an issue that is supposedly not on voters’ radars, the subject is certainly top of mind.”

On Sunday, TB&P released poll numbers that show President Trump’s approval rating in Arkansas stands at 50-47%, a dip from February (60-35%) and April (53-39%).

The latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll was taken on Thursday, July 20, 2017 among 511 Arkansas voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.3%.

ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“For the first time in this survey, we captured Arkansans’ reactions to the developing scandal involving the relationship between the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and the President’s reaction to it in recent months. With the Trump/Russia issue continuing to evolve, this survey serves as a baseline which we will continue to gauge in the months ahead.

“While the state’s voters are quite divided on the scandal, it is also quite clear that those voters are paying close attention to it and, for a significant portion of the electorate, the scandal has reached a point that they are convinced President Trump should be removed from office because of it. Arkansans are nearly split on the issue of whether the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government during last year’s campaign (41% believe coordination has been proved, 43% think it to be untrue, and the remainder are unsure). Strikingly, four in ten Arkansans go so far as to say they now believe President Trump should be removed from office because of the Russia affair while 49% believe not.

“There is a close correlation between the two questions, with 82% of those who believe there to have been coordination between the campaign and the Russian government supporting his removal from office and 91% of those who don’t believe there to be coordination seeing no basis for removal. Of those that “don’t know” about whether collusion has occurred, the plurality (46%) opposes removal and 31% also does not have an opinion on that issue.

“While a core pro-Trump supporter will unquestionably stay loyal to the President no matter what new evidence might come to light in the months ahead, it does indicate that there remains a chunk of the electorate that is still processing the information about the issue that is available and there are others who might be moved by new matters brought to light.

“As responses to the two questions are so highly correlated, the crosstabs on them are quite similar. On both issues, a sizable gender gap is shown. By a 47% to 36%  margin, women respondents believe coordination has been shown; just under half of women believe removal of Trump is justified.

“Conversely, by a 52% to 33% margin, men believe coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia has not been evidenced; 60% of men believe removal is not justified by the evidence. While a large majority of Democrats (73%) believe that coordination has been shown, majorities of both Republicans (67%) and Independents (53%) believe it has not.

“The same pattern is shown in terms of the relationship between partisanship and removal of the President from office. In terms of geography, voters in the Second Congressional District (central Arkansas) are most engaged on the issue with only 12% lacking an opinion on the issue of coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia; along with the rural Fourth Congressional District based in south Arkansas, it is also one of the two congressional districts with a plurality of respondents believing coordination has been proved.”

METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted on Thursday, July 20, 2017. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.3%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 511 Arkansas voters statewide.

Age and gender were weighted. The results of weighting did not alter the raw data results by more than one percentage point in any direction.

Age (weighted)
12%  Under the age of 30
24% Between the ages of 30 and 44
39% Between the ages of 45 and 64
24% 65 or older

Ethnicity
10% African-American
1% Asian-American
1% Latino
78%  Caucasian or White
10%  Other

Party Identification
35.5% Democratic
37% Republican
23% Independent
4.5% Other

Gender (weighted)
48% Male
52% Female

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College.

For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at [email protected] or Dr. Jay Barth by email at [email protected].