Gasoline prices expected to be 10% higher than last summer

U.S. gas prices will rise 23 cents to an average of $2.46 per gallon this summer, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The price for a gallon of regular gasoline should rise about 10% between April and September, “but this price is still nearly 70 cents per gallon below the previous five-year average,” according to the EIA. “The gasoline price increase this summer primarily reflects slightly higher forecast crude oil prices.”

For 2017, the average price of gas is projected to be $2.39 per gallon. The average household is expected to spend about $200 more on gasoline this year, than the previous year, according to the EIA. In 2016, the average household spent $1,872 on gas, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. Last year, gas prices were at the lowest level since 2004.

In the Gulf Coast region, which includes Arkansas, the price of gas is expected to be $2.21 per gallon, the lowest of any region. It will be the highest in the West Coast region at $2.87 per gallon.

“Gasoline prices reflect four main components: crude oil prices, wholesale margins, retail distribution costs and taxes,” according to the EIA. Variations in gas prices are largely a result of changes in crude oil prices and wholesale margins because retail distribution costs and taxes are more stable. A dollar per barrel change in the price of crude oil or gasoline wholesale margins “translates into a change of 2.4 cents per gallon in product prices.”

The Brent crude oil price is expected to be $54 per barrel this summer, and through 2018, the price should remain less than $60 a barrel.

This summer, gas consumption is expected to rise 0.3% to 9.5 million barrels per day, compared to the past summer, “as an expected 1.4% increase in summer highway travel more than offsets a 1.2% increase in fleet-wide fuel efficiency.”