Arkansas’ jobless rate falls below 4% again, enters 2017 just off all-time low

Unemployment in Arkansas at the end of 2016 fell below the 4% level again in December, tumbling one percentage point for the month as retailers across the state hired temporary and part-time help to get through the holiday shopping season.

Labor force data, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and released Friday (Jan. 20) by the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, shows Arkansas’ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December at 3.9%, down from 4% in November and well below the year ago level of 4.7%.

Still, Arkansas’ civilian labor force declined 6,702, a result of 5,357 fewer employed and 1,345 fewer unemployed workers. Today, there are 1,342,243 Arkansans working or seeking gainful employment, about 6,250 more than a year ago.

“Arkansas’ unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in December, after starting the year at 4.4%,” said BLS Program Operations Manager Susan Price. “The unemployed rate steadily decreased in early 2016, before becoming fairly stable in the latter half of the year.”

Arkansas’ unemployment rate touched an all-time low of 3.8% in May, and has fallen below 4% in at four of the 12 months in 2016. The state’s low unemployment rate and growing labor pool has been a point of emphasis for Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s administration since he took office nearly two years ago. The state’s civilian work force touched a record high in August 2008, when there were 1,376,951 workers in the labor pool and the jobless rate was at 5.5%, state workforce officials said. That tally included 1,300,795 employed workers, and 76,156 seeking work, DWS data shows.

Despite the upbeat job report, there has still been some notable job cut announcements in central Arkansas and the rest of the state in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Arkansas Democrat Gazette, Timex, the Little Rock School district, and ArcBest Corp. have all announced layoffs or job cuts from as low as 10 workers to several dozen.

Two weeks ago, in the final snapshot of the nation’s workforce under the administration of President Barack Obama, the U.S. economy added 156,000 workers in December and ended the year with a jobless rate of 4.7%, the BLS report. The rate was up from 4.6% in November, and below the 5% in December 2015.

NATIONAL ECONOMY
The U.S. unemployment picture has remained mostly unchanged in the second half of 2016, holding at the same since May 2016 when the jobless rate first dipped under 5%. Arkansas’ unemployment rate has also held steady at 4% over the past three months as the state’s labor pool is brimming with 1,349,512 workers.

Earlier this month, the U.S. economy added a steady 161,000 to employee rolls in October as the nation’s unemployment fell to 4.9% just four days before the nation’s presidential election. In addition, U.S. wages rose to the highest level in a year as average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from a month earlier to $25.92, up 2.8% from a year ago.

New Hampshire and South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rates in October at 2.8% each. Alaska and New Mexico had the highest jobless rates, 6.8% and 6.7%, respectively. In total, 18 states, including Arkansas, had unemployment rates significantly lower than the U.S. jobless rate of 4.9%, nine states and the District of Columbia had higher rates, and 23 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

NONFARM JOBS DECLINE
Arkansas’ closely-watched nonfarm employment in Arkansas saw a decrease of 2,700 positions in December to total 1,235,700. Seven major industry sectors reported job losses for the month, which was offset the gains reported in three sectors.

The higher-waged professional and business services sector declined by 1,800 as losses occurred in administrative and support services, a subsector that includes seasonal activities such as landscaping.

Government jobs saw an expected seasonal decline of 1,000 positions. Expected losses were reported in state and local government, related to the winter break at public schools. That number will likely see an increase in January as lawmakers and state policymakers gather in Little Rock for the 91st General Assembly.

In the win column, the trade, transportation and utilities sector added 2,300 jobs.  Gains were posted in all subsectors, as the holiday shopping season triggered seasonal hiring across the industry.

Compared to December 2015, Arkansas’ nonfarm payroll employment has increased slightly by 3,500 workers. Six major industry sectors posted growth, while five sectors declined. For the month, Education and Health Services sector added a strong 5,300 jobs, and now has 184,700 workers in the state’s tight labor pool, compared with 184,800 a month ago and 179,400 in the same period a year ago. This sector has seen steady growth in the past decade, with employment in the sector up 4.2% in the past year.

The Professional and Business services supersector added 4,000 jobs year-over-year, raising total employee count to 144,700 across Arkansas, down from 146,500 in November but well above 140,700 in December 2015.

The Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector – Arkansas’ largest job sector – added 2,300 workers in December as now has an estimated 259,200 workers in the labor pool, compared to 256,900 in November and 262,400 from a year ago.

There are now 217,600 government workers in the state’s growing labor pool, down 1,100 from 218,700 in November and nearly even with 217,500 positions working at the local, state or federal level.

The struggling construction sector fell by 800 workers from 49,100 in November and 49,500 blue-collar workers employed in the same period a year ago. The sector is well off the employment high of 57,600 reached in May 2007.

Mining and logging, which includes the state’s oil and gas sector, continued to leak jobs as drilling and well production activity in the Fayetteville Shale has not rebounding from a two-year slump. There are now 6,500 mining jobs in Arkansas, down 100 positions from a month ago and 1,000 fewer than in December 2015.

The up-and-down manufacturing sector in Arkansas also loss another 900 jobs in December and now has 153,100 blue collar workers. A year ago there were 155,100 manufacturing jobs in Arkansas, well-off peak employment of 247,300 in the sector in February 1995.