Arkansans Cautiously Optimistic on Personal Finances

Arkansans remain optimistic, if slightly less so than in March, about their personal financial situation, according to the second phase of the Fall 2015 Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey released Tuesday.

This phase includes a study of consumers’ outlooks on personal finances, buying conditions over the next six months, and business conditions over the next year and the next five years.

According to the survey conducted in September, 56 percent of Arkansas consumers expect their personal financial situation to remain the same over the next 12 months, while 28 percent expect improvement over that same period. In March’s survey, 55 percent expected their situation to remain the same and 30 percent expected improvement.

The other areas surveyed were Missouri, including Greater Kansas City, and Oklahoma. Across the region, 54 percent expect their personal financial situation to stay the same, while 33 percent expect it to improve.

When it came to determining buying conditions, 51 percent of Arkansans believe the next six months will be a good time to buy items like furniture, televisions and refrigerators. That’s down from the 56 percent who thought so in March.

By comparison, 55 percent of the entire region believes the next six months will be a good time to buy. That’s a decrease of 4 percent.

“Over the next year in Arkansas, there are expectations of an improving national economy, while consumers were less optimistic about their own prospects than they were in March,” said Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas and lead economist for the survey. “This mixed outlook is likely the result of the ongoing lack of an increase in personal wages. In other words, while consumers are generally positive, the ongoing lack of increases in their wages seems to be dampening their positive outlook.”

In terms of expected business conditions, however, Arkansans felt more optimistic in September than they did in March. While 29 percent of respondents in March expected good times for businesses over the next year, that number jumped to 33 percent in September.

When the timeframe was expanded to five years, the number of respondents — 39 percent — who expect continuous good times over the next five years was the same in September as in March.

Expectations for the region as a whole were mixed. While 32 percent of regional respondents expected good times for businesses over the next year, 43 percent expected good times over the next five years. That compares to 34 percent (one year) and 42 percent (five years) in March.

This round of survey results also includes a Current Conditions Sub-Index and a Consumer Expectations Sub-Index, which follows the model of the national Thomson/Reuters Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Current Conditions Sub-Index for Arkansas in September is 85.5, down from March’s 89.6, while the regional index is 90.3 for September. The Current Conditions Sub-Index is tabulated from the answers to two questions on the survey: “How is your current financial situation compared with a year ago?” and “What do you think of buying conditions over the next six months?”

Arkansas’ Consumer Expectations Sub-Index in September is 72.8, up from March’s 72.4, while the regional index is 77.5 for September. The Consumer Expectations Sub-Index is tabulated from the answers to three survey questions: “How do you expect your financial situation to change in the next year?” “How do you think business conditions will be in a year?” and “How do you expect business conditions will be in five years?”

These sub-indexes are meaningful in comparison to national indexes or to previous values of Arvest Consumer Sentiment indexes. Higher numbers indicate some combination of consumer satisfaction with their current and expected personal finances, current and expected economic performance, and the purchasing environment. Larger increases indicate more confidence across the three areas.

The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey is conducted by the CBER, with the University of Oklahoma’s Public Opinion Learning Laboratory conducting 1,200 phone surveys.

Arvest Bank’s sponsorship of this survey is due to its desire to provide beneficial data for its customers and communities. The data provides a reading of how consumers are feeling about the economy in the states where the bank operates. Additionally, with future results, consumers, as well as the business community, will be able to see how sentiment is trending.

The Bureau of Economic Research at Missouri State University provides state analysis of the Missouri data. The Steven C. Agee Economic Research & Policy Institute, Meinders School of Business at Oklahoma City University, evaluates the data for Oklahoma.

The survey will be conducted twice a year, with the next survey expected to be completed in May 2016. With each study, the index score will be released first, followed by a second release on consumer outlook including the Current Conditions Index and the Consumer Expectations Index and a third release on savings and spending expectations.

More information about the survey can be found at www.arvestconsumersurvey.com.