Speculating about Gosack’s departure

Ray Gosack’s sudden and unexpected resignation as Fort Smith’s City Administrator without a hint of the reason begs one to speculate as to the why. Speculation isn’t reliable in finding the truth, but it doesn’t cost anything. So let’s speculate.

Let’s begin with what we know, which isn’t much. Last Tuesday Ray met with the Fort Smith Board of Directors in an executive session for a “performance evaluation.” The meeting was requested by Ray himself. We know now that he informed the Board of Directors that he was retiring.

On Friday, July 10, Ray released a letter addressed to Mayor Sanders and the Board of Directors stating, “…I’m announcing my retirement as City Administrator effective August 10, 2015. My last day of work will be today [July 10]. I’ll use vacation leave to account for my time between July 13th and August 10th.”

Not much to go on to determine his motive. When most people retire, there are hints given in advance. When a man in Ray’s position has worked for an organization more than 16 years, you give co-workers and staff time to plan a proper retirement party so they can give you a hug and take a few pictures and eat a piece of cake with you. Ray may have had his office cleaned out before he announced his decision to retire to the board. Ray demonstrated to all of us how to make and execute a decision.

So what else do we know?

Ray is 57 years old, a little young for a man to retire. His salary was $153,000 plus benefits (e.g., car allowance, medical insurance, and retirement plan contributions) worth another $40,000 or so. He didn’t quit because of his ability to live comfortably.

He could be dealing with emotional issues. At 57 you are beginning to feel mortal. You’re old but not elderly. He probably has a bucket list. Some people when they are on the downhill side of life feel the need to live a bit. The hours required to be city administrator probably doesn’t leave a lot of time to contemplate life’s journey and retire to have more time to spend in their final pursuits.  But a man that gets to Ray’s position usually doesn’t have the temperament to quit and do nothing. I speculate Ray found a better job opportunity.

We know that for a man of Ray’s background, education and pay scale, the likelihood of finding a better opportunity in Fort Smith is slim. Those opportunities just don’t exist in quantity. But this is becoming more part of the life lived in Fort Smith. Individuals with skills, education, and experience in demand move to other geographic locations in order to find and participate in other opportunities. I suspect Ray has a new job lined up elsewhere.

But still, that doesn’t make sense that Ray would want to leave Fort Smith this close to the end of his career, making near $200,000 in compensation, and getting rave reviews on his performance by the Board of Directors year after year. So what else do we know that may have motivated Ray to retire so young?

We know the resources to fund Fort Smith’s police and fire departments pension obligations has been declining since 2008 and will exhaust all its funds by 2021 at current funding levels. The Board of Directors current response to the problem has been to ask the city’s operating departments to cut their cost at least 3%. Raising fees and tax rates is such an unpleasant task. Reducing city services to the residents is the better option.

We know the federal government insisted Fort Smith spend an estimated $480 million ($5,476 per resident) to improve our sewer system over the next 12 years. Of course we know if the estimate is $480 million the actual costs will be much higher. The unfortunate part of the sewer improvements is that the residents will have to pay the costs. One source of the sewer fund improvements is an increase in the sewage rates. The Board of Directors authorized an increase in sewer rates 244% over a three year period.

We know that most of our neighboring cities are enjoying rates of economic growth while Fort Smith seems to be limping along. Using the local distribution reports on the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration’s website as a proxy for economic activity, when comparing sales tax collections in 2007 (the last year before the Great Recession) with 2014 (the last complete year of data reported), Fort Smith’s growth in tax collections over this period was 6.27% compared with the state’s overall growth in tax collections in the same period was 26.95%. This implies that over the last seven years the growth in economic activity in Fort Smith has been about 25% less of Arkansas as a whole. That stinks.

When comparing Fort Smith’s numbers that indicate the level of Fort Smith’s progress with other cities in close proximity, they show Fort Smith is not keeping up with the Joneses.

Here is my theory as to why Ray Gosack resigned as our city administrator. Ray is smart. Although he did not hold a political office, he thinks and understands politics. Ray is well liked and well connected.

Ray has access to all the demographics, statistics, and facts that measure and help predict Fort Smith’s future. As part of his job he assuredly compared these metrics to the metrics of other cities within and without Arkansas. Peering into Fort Smith’s not so distant future, I speculate he could see Fort Smith’s financial condition at risk. Probably not desperate, but trending down. Ray is smart enough to leave before his resume could be bruised by the increasing odds that Fort Smith will suffer a shortage of funds requiring a reduction of city services and possible increases in fees and taxes.

Remember, my reasoning of Ray’s motivation for retiring is speculative and I’m just John Q. Public. I have no inside information. However, my concern over the lack of growth in tax revenues because Fort Smith’s lacks leadership in finding a source of economic growth isn’t speculative, it’s documented.

The people in Fort Smith need to take notice. We can continue to deceive ourselves as to the promise of great opportunity in the future and then wait around until only the hard core second, third, and fourth generation residents remain to demolish the empty buildings.  Or we could find a way to come together and make Fort Smith a place for the fifth, sixth, and seventh generations to live with opportunities for a great future.

Fort Smith’s ability to pay for our city service, past obligations to our public servants, and the ability to make future capital improvements will depend on an environment that attracts private investment that generates jobs and incites people to start their own businesses. There is some action around town to move Fort Smith forward, but leaders need followers to support them. The people of Fort Smith need unity in purpose. But right now the numbers are not going up, at least they are not going up by much.

I think Ray did his job, the job he was hired to do. He administered the daily city operations. I don’t know that anybody can have much of a valid complaint about his overall performance. 

For Fort Smith residents, Ray Gosack is now a part of our history. His motivation to retire is really not important. Our focus should turn toward our city Board of Directors. The question is can they lead? Will their governance benefit Fort Smith or distract Fort Smith from focusing on what is essential for a healthy future? Those are questions with answers that are highly speculative.