NRF Predicts Retail Industry Will Grow By 4 Percent in 2015

Northwest Arkansas

by Talk Business & Politics ([email protected]) February 12, 2015 1:52 pm 117 views 

Retail industry sales are expected to increase by 4.1 percent in 2015, according to an economic forecast released Thursday by the National Retail Federation.

If sales hold true to the forecast, it would mean the biggest annual growth in the industry since 2011, when sales for the year increased 5.1 percent, according to an NRF press release.

Non-store sales (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales) are predicted to grown between 7 and 10 percent.

“The economy appears to finally have gained some real traction and, after a somewhat turbulent 2014, we expect to see continued gains in economic activity in the year ahead,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said, according to the release.

The year-over-year growth rate is up from 2014, which saw growth of 3.5 percent.

“While Americans are benefiting from a pick-up in wages and jobs and gains in the U.S. stock market, economic slack has been reduced,” Kleinhenz said. “We still, however, have a ways to go in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. There are a few wild cards that the retailers will need to keep an eye on, like global economic growth, energy prices and even inflation.”

NRF CEO and President Matthew Shay agrees.

“We aren’t quite out of the woods,” he said in the release. “In order to see continued momentum we need a commitment from our leaders in Washington [D.C.,] to pass legislation that will encourage investment, create jobs and set us on the path toward sustained, long-term economic growth.”

Retail industry sales according to NRF include sales at grocery, department, discount and specialty stores, and online. Sales at automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants are excluded.   

 Additional economic insights from the NRF include:

  • A baseline outlook for growth in the economy as measured by GDP is expected to land between 2.7 and 3.2 percent over last year;
  • Growth in the labor market should average between 220,000 and 230,000 new jobs per month throughout the year;
  • Unemployment is expected to drop to 5 percent by year’s end;
  • Gains in equities and housing have boosted net worth to record levels, helping consumers feel more confident about household spending.

Also, NRF released retail sales for holiday sales, showing growth of 4 percent, and for January, noting an increase of 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.7 percent adjusted year-over-year.

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday that January retail sales decreased 0.8 percent over the previous month seasonally adjusted, and increased 3.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to the NRF press release.