New study offers options to third Fort Smith high school

A report presented Monday night (Dec. 15) to the Fort Smith Board of Education appears to throw a wet blanket on previous talk among school officials to soon build a third, $65 million high school on land donated by Chaffee Crossing.

Preston Smith, owner of Kansas City, Mo.-based Business Information Services, told school officials and a small contingent of area business leaders that Fort Smith’s two high schools – Northside and Southside – could run out of space in three years, but a new high school complex is not necessary.

“Under the current grade configurations, we believe there is adequate space to hold both the future elementary and junior high students, by redrawing some attendance boundaries. However, the high schools could run out of space as soon as three years from now. If the high school attendance lines are not redrawn, we estimate that an additional 70,000 sq. ft. of classroom space could be needed to accommodate the enrollment,” Smith noted in a lengthy 349-page report that include numerous pages of maps and demographic information.

Asked after the presentation if the report may stifle the push for a third high school, Dr. Benny Gooden, superintendent of Fort Smith Public Schools, rejected the notion that he or the Board had pushed for a third school. He said it was merely one of several options.

“I’ve never pushed for a third high school,” Gooden told The City Wire, adding that there may still be a need for a new high school beyond the 10-year period covered in Smith’s report.

THIRD HIGH SCHOOL DEBATE
Gooden has said the district's population of 14,313 students was expected to blossom to about 17,000 students by the year 2023, which would necessitate a third high school and re-alignment of freshman to the city's high schools.

Earlier this year and in 2013, Gooden said based on the continued increase since the year 2000, he and the Fort Smith Board of Education have been looking at different options for addressing the needs of Fort Smith's High School students. Three options were primarily looked at:
• Do nothing;
• Increase the use of portable buildings on campuses and possibly expand existing campuses;
• Construct a new Fort Smith high school and realign the student populations across all junior high and high school campuses.

Conservative estimates for construction of a new high school place the project at about $65 million, with the district needing seek a millage rate increase from 4.5 mills to 6.5 mils.

However, talk of the third Fort Smith high school was challenged after a Feb. 24 school board meeting in which a group of concerned residents and business leaders requested more research before the district decides another high school is needed. In response to the request, the school board agreed to hire Smith and his firm to conduct a demographics and enrollment projection study.

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
Smith’s presentation Monday took less than 30 minutes and he presented 20 slides to summarize his lengthy report. Highlights of his report include the following.

• The district has a capacity, based on a square footage calculation, for 17,246 students and our high-end enrollment projection for 2024-25 is for 15,037 K-12 students.

• We recommend that if the Fort Smith School District expands its pre-Kindergarten program, that a 9th Grade Center be constructed on the 98 acres of donated property at Chaffee Crossing, and within the next three years add at least 70,000 sq. ft. of classroom space to the two high schools. We would also recommend that the elementary grades be reconfigured from K-6 to K-5, with 6th graders added to the new junior high enrollments of 6th through 8th, once the 9th grade center is opened.

• Capacity issues at the elementary and junior high schools could be overcome by redrawing attendance boundaries since there is sufficient space to hold the current and future students.

• We found 3,746 students in the district who are not attending the school in the area in which they live, on the 2013-14 roster. This is about 22% of the total number of students who enrolled in the district during that year. This large number of students not attending schools in the same zones where they are live can create student management issues, such as how capacities could be realistically redistributed.

• Three statistical models project that Fort Smith’s district enrollment will be between 13,844 and 14,964 by 2024-25. This is assuming an annual enrollment growth of be-tween 0.61 percent and –0.166 percent. For the last 10 years, the growth rate has been 1.192 percent per year.

• In 2000-2010, the population in the Fort Smith district increased by 4,970 persons. Enrollment increased by 1,510 students, which means that for every three persons who moved to the district, there was a new student. Demographic vendor data predicts that during the next decade the district will grow by 4,575 persons. Based on the 3:1 ratio, that means enrollment should increase by 1,430 students. The enrollment has already increased by 525 since 2010, so either the district’s enrollment is going to have to pick up considerably or the ratio is going to fall more back in line to a five or six-to-one ratio, that we see in most other districts.

• Birth rates for the district have fallen dramatically since 2009. In fact, birth rates have fallen nearly 17 percent. It has been more than 20 years since the number of births in 2013 have been so low. A regression model based on births in the school district shows there would be only 961 Kindergarten students by 2018, 13 percent lower than the current enrollment. Unless there is a strong reversal in births in the district, we believe the long-term outlook for the district’s enrollment is negative.

• Demographic trends during the next decade point to stagnant average household sizes (already lower than the national average), more childbearing-age women who would be having fewer children, fewer children under 5 years old and more school-age children. 

• On average, each new house built results in 0.196 new students, or five new houses equal one new student. For every 14.3 new jobs in the Fort Smith metro, the Fort Smith School District realizes one new student. In both cases, the predictability statistically is very weak.

• In the 2014-15 school year, there were two record-size cohort grades. Closer analysis shows that the 2006-07 1st grade class accounted for all the record-size cohorts except for only four grades. This does not point to a district that has a growing enrollment, which usually has several record-size cohorts in the most recent school year.

• In 2010, 85 percent of the available school-age children living in the Fort Smith School District attend the public schools. So there were 2,215 children either home-schooled or attending private schools in 2010. Of the 11 private schools within 15 miles of the Fort Smith district, enrollment has fallen from 1,575 in 2005-06 to 1,242 in 2014-15.

(Link here for the large PDF file of the Demographics and Enrollment Projection Study.)

SCHOOL REACTION
Gooden’s office issued a five-page response to Smith’s study – some of which challenged and agreed with Smith’s findings.

“The demographic data, economic projections and other data are useful and will serve as a resource as the Board of Education continues to evaluate its options in addressing space needs to serve Fort Smith students far into the future,” Gooden noted.

Gooden’s response also noted that Smith’s study “is not dramatically different” from one produced by Ken O’Donnell when he was employed by the Western Arkansas Planning and Development District.

“However, Mr. O’Donnell’s projection also went out to 2030 which is beyond the 10-year window in this study and in keeping with the long-range view discussed by the Board of Education during the past several years,” Gooden wrote.

Counterpoints to Smith’s study noted in Gooden’s response include:
• Criteria used by Smith to determine school building capacity (needed square feet) “is based on a universal model of some 20 years ago” and does not reflect Arkansas school facility standards.

• Projected enrollment at the various schools in the system “does not take into account the longstanding transfer options sanctioned by current policy” or the mobility statistics within the district.

• School districts compared to the Fort Smith Public School District “are all districts with less diversity, significantly more affluence and virtually none of the characteristics found in a purely urban environment like Fort Smith.”

• Although Smith rejects the idea of a new high school, the Fort Smith Board of Education has said a new high school “is the most forward-looking and costly option, but it is designed to address needs well into the 15-20 year future. It is also the most disruptive to the status quo.”

• The report from Smith “does not evaluate the current facilities relative to functionality and overall condition. This was not part of the agreed upon scope of this study, but is important in terms of future planning.”

BUSINESS REACTION
Part of Smith’s report found that for every 14.3 new jobs created between 1990 and 2013, only one new student enrolled in the Fort Smith Public School District. The finding countered conventional wisdom that more jobs mean more students.

Tim Allen, president and CEO of the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce, did not dispute Smith’s findings. He said it may be that those with the new jobs look for other school districts in which to live.

“A lot of people want more options when it comes to K through 12,” said Allen, who attended the Monday presentation.

He said he knows of several situations where company officers work in Fort Smith, but travel from as far away as Fayetteville because they believe another school district or residency will be better for their children by providing access to STEM programs/schools or unique charter schools.

Overall, Allen said the report was impressive, and served as a reminder that “there is no one answer” when it comes to dealing with school growth.

Sam Sicard, president and CEO of First National Bank of Fort Smith, and one of the business leaders who pushed for the report, praised its detail and analysis. He said the lower enrollment projections were not a surprise.

“That was more in line with what we thought they would be,” Sicard said.

He also said a closer partnership between the school district and the University of Arkansas at Fort Smith may result in programs that would not only provide public school students more career-education options, but also alleviate the need for more public school space.

“There are innovative things like that out there and we should look at those,” he said.

Sicard later sent this statement to The City Wire: “We are pleased with the thoroughness of the research-based analysis  the consultant provided. We commend the Board for taking this step and were impressed with the consultant the School Board selected. The report indicates total enrollment will most likely increase by only a little more than 400 students over the next decade, which is far less than previous estimates that were provided to us that we questioned. This slowdown in enrollment growth is strongly supported by the consultant's research that there has been a 17% reduction in birth rates in the district over the last several years.

“We believe there are several attractive solutions to address this modest projected growth. One possible solution that we hope is explored is attempting to significantly expand the number of high school students attending UAFS to get a head start at furthering their education. We believe this will lower college student debt, increase higher education degree completion rates, help retain more students in our community, while also relieving some of the capacity challenges at our two high schools.

“We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the Fort Smith Public School Board of Education for listening to our concerns and for their dedication to the academic achievement and future success of our community's children.”