Republicans Rode A Wave To Victory, Beebe Says

Arkansas Republicans’ overwhelming victory in Tuesday’s elections was the result of a national wave that Democrats couldn’t do much to stop, Gov. Mike Beebe said Wednesday.

Beebe told reporters outside his office Wednesday (Nov. 5) that Republicans successfully tied every race to President Obama’s unpopularity.

“I think they probably did all they could do,” he said of Democrats.

Republicans won almost everything Tuesday, capturing all six of the state’s congressional seats and all seven statewide constitutional offices. They now control 24 of the 35 seats in the Senate and 64 of the 100 seats in the House.

“It’s clearly a realignment because there was not the history in Arkansas of voting for Republicans, and now the people of Arkansas have chosen to step out and vote for a party that their grandfathers and grandmothers did not vote for,” said Doyle Webb, Republican Party of Arkansas chairman.

The size of the victory and the momentum of the past three elections suggests that, after a century and a half of Democratic dominance, Republicans may dominate for decades.

Asked if Arkansas was now a one-party Republican state, Webb said, “I hope not. The Republican Party has worked for years to have a two-party state. I think that the challenge of a Democrat Party and its ideas are important to the Republican Party, and I think that two parties in the marketplace of ideas, opposing ideas where the public can hear those ideas, is valuable for Arkansas.”

Beebe reminded reporters that Democrats swept the elections in 2006 when he was elected governor.

“It could very well be permanent, although in politics, nothing’s really too permanent. … If they’re successful and they govern wisely and they’re able to bring people together and solve these problems, then it creates a greater likelihood of a generational thing,” he said. “If they don’t, then it will be a short-wave cyclical thing.”

Speaking at a table at the Embassy Suites, where Republicans celebrated their victory Tuesday night, Webb said, to stay in power, “I think we have to deliver on our promises. I think we have to be deliberate and careful, listening to the people, and looking at tax reduction, job creation, better education.”

He said the party immediately will begin recruiting candidates for 2016.

To be competitive in future contests, Beebe said Democrats must recruit good candidates. He acknowledged that few potential ones seem available but said good ones will emerge. Asked how he had been re-elected in 2010, another wave election for Republicans, he said candidates must have a relationship with voters.

“If they know you to the point that, not just know your name, but have a substantive feeling for you, good or bad, then you can transcend whatever the trend is,” he said.

Skip Rutherford, longtime Democratic activist and dean of the Clinton School of Public Service, said wave elections have happened before and will happen again.

Most of the rest of the South has already shifted from the Democratic to the Republican Party, but Rutherford foresees population trends favoring a more competitive Democratic Party in the future.

“The demographics are going to reshape the South, and it may not be the same solid South dominated by white Democrats of years past,” he said. “It will be a different South, but there are going to be Southern states competitive. Demographics are going to dictate that.”

Rutherford cited a number of states that will be affected by changes such as an expanding Latino vote for Democrats. Arkansas did not make the list.

“The demographic trends look like that Arkansas is going to be R for a long time,” he said.

Webb said when the party polled legislative races this summer, Republicans facing Democratic incumbents were trailing by double digits. Polls taken in early to mid-October showed Republican candidates had pulled even or were a few points ahead in those races, though many were within the margin of error. The party didn’t conduct any polls between then and the election, and that’s when independents broke toward Republicans. For example, Michelle Gray was leading by about two points in October in her House District 62 race against Democratic Rep. Tommy Wren. She won, 54-46%.

Webb said that within the past two weeks, he began believing that both Rep. Tom Cotton and Asa Hutchinson would win their races for U.S. Senate and governor by double digits. They did better than he expected, however. Cotton won, 55-39%, while Hutchinson won, 55-42%. Those performances raised the numbers for the rest of the Republican field.

“I was surprised that we won as many seats as we did. I felt in the last week that we would get in the upper 50s,” in the House, Webb said.

The size of the Republican win calls into question the future of the so-called Medicaid private option, which passed with little room to spare in 2013 and narrowly was reauthorized in 2014 with Democratic support. Some of the Republican candidates who won Tuesday pledged during their campaigns that they would oppose it. Beebe said it’s in trouble.

“Based upon the election and what people said, it’s got a serious problem,” he said, “and if it does, then this change is short-term. … If you’re going to throw 200,000 people out of insurance, you’re going to create a huge cadre of folks who might have been sitting on the sideline or voting the other way, that never had insurance before and that all of a sudden are going to be energized.”

Webb wouldn’t predict the program’s future, and he’s aware that the party will face challenges. With such a large majority, disagreements will arise and factions will develop. Webb said he has been in contact with party officials from other Southern states who have experienced a similar transfer of power from Democratic to Republican rule. However, he said, “When we only had eight in the Senate, we always had competition of ideas.”

Beebe said he had asked the heads of his staff and departments as well as the Governor’s Mansion staff to prepare transition documents for Gov.-elect Hutchinson. He has offered to meet with Hutchinson to help.

“Governor can be a lonely job,” he said. “It’s a great job. Don’t get me wrong. I loved virtually every minute of it, and he will too. But sometimes it can be a lonely job, too.”