Ferdinand’s ghost

Before the year is out, it is worthwhile to remember that 100 ago, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife were murdered by a Serb nationalist in the streets of Sarajevo. The death of anyone is tragic, but we remember the event for what it set in motion.

Ferdinand was heir to the Austria-Hungarian throne; Austria blamed Serbia for his murder. In a tragic cascade of events, Austria declared war on Serbia, Russia sided with Serbia, and soon one nation after another, driven by rigid alliances, fueled by nationalism, and guided by miscalculation, joined the conflict. By August, World War I had begun. More than 15 million would die and empires would collapse before it was over.

What happened?

No one really wanted war; in fact, the leaders of three of the combatants – Russia, Germany and Britain – were related to one another and tried to talk their way out of it. But war still occurred. Scholars differ, with some emphasizing certain things and some emphasizing others.

What is important to remember though about that summer over 100 years ago is that things can turn bad really, really fast on the international scene.

There are number of parallels between our time and then. In 1914, Europe was dealing with the rise of major power, Germany, when it became a unified state a few decades earlier. At the same time, Britain, a dominate power for so long, was over-stretched globally and financially. Failed states such as the Austrian-Hungarian and the Ottoman empires were rotting out, providing the potential flash zones that would eventually lead to world war.

At the same time, the major powers of Europe were competing for resources in their scramble for colonial territories. Radical philosophies such as communism and anarchy were challenging the old order.

In our time, China is the rising military and economic power. A resurgent Russia has also been flexing its military muscles in Europe. The United States, which has been the global hegemon for the last 20 years sees itself challenged by both countries. It is overstretched militarily and financially.

Failed states such as Syria and Libya threatens to drag more nations into conflict. The Islamic State (IS), with its radical Islamism, has brought instability to an already fragile Iraq. The Israeli-Palestinian issue is as intractable as ever.

The primary reason we are in the Middle East is because of our addiction to oil. Indeed the whole world is addicted to this crucial stuff. China, Japan and the Philippines are engaged in a dangerous dance for possession of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. As allies of Japan and the Philippines, we are obligated by treaty to come to their assistance in time of war.

One can imagine how events could lead to the nightmare scenarios that could lead to wider conflict. A NATO plane bumps into a Russian bomber. A Chinese gunboat fires on a Japanese or Philippine ship. IS topples the Iraqi government and heads for Saudi Arabia, shutting off a significant global source of oil. We do well not to be complacent about the risks we face today.

Ferdinand may be dead, but his ghost lives on today.