NYT’s Jonathan Martin: High Stakes For Senate Debates

With two U.S. Senate debates planned on back-to-back nights this coming week, New York Times national political correspondent Jonathan Martin says, “This could be one of those moments where a debate really does change a race.”

Martin appeared on this week’s edition of Talk Business & Politics, which airs Sundays at 9 a.m. on KATV Ch. 7.

The two major party candidates for Senate – Mark Pryor and Tom Cotton will square off in an AETN debate with the two third party candidates on Monday. On Tuesday night, Cotton and Pryor meet face-to-face in Fayetteville.

“I think you’re going to see Cotton come out and use the word ‘Obama’ about 30 times, but that’s the centerpiece of his campaign,” Martin said.

Pryor’s strategy involves reversing the focus on a national agenda and making the match-up about Arkansas.

“I think in terms of Sen. Pryor, he’s going to try to localize this election – talk about his connection with the state, what he’s done for the state – and then try to portray Mr. Cotton as out of touch with Arkansas,” Martin said.

He added that he expects both candidates to be “really aggressive.”

Martin also talked about the strategies heading into the final weeks of the campaign as all eyes remained fixed on Arkansas and the potential role the Senate race may play in which party controls the U.S. Senate.

“When you see both sides dropping a lot of money into the second week of October, that means it’s still a competitive race,” he said.

He outlined both parties’ paths to victory in November. For Pryor and the Democrats, they must activate and add a group of voters that don’t normally turnout in a mid-term election cycle.

“That’s Sen. Pryor’s big challenge: can he remake this electorate from what it typically is in a non-Presidential year?” Martin said.

As was evidenced by former President Bill Clinton’s visit to the state last week, Martin said Democrats are optimistic about their game plan to boost voter turnout. He also said that he expects perhaps two more visits by Clinton before Election Day, especially a trip to reach African-American voters, a key constituency for Democrats.

Republicans and Cotton are very well-funded and have natural election year patterns working in their favor, Martin added.

“The fact is it’s a mid-term year, Pres. Obama’s sixth year in office, and this is a state that after decades of being a Democratic state – in recent cycles – you’re finally seeing the realignment take hold here where Arkansas is becoming more like the rest of the South. It’s more of a Republican state,” he said.

“The combination of those things gives Mr. Cotton certainly an advantage. And if you talk to Republicans in Washington, they’re feeling pretty confident about Arkansas.”

You can watch the full interview below.