Tolbert: ‘Cavalry Is Coming’ To Help Hill

While attention has been focused on the heavily-watched races for Senate and Governor, the closest race in the state could be the Second Congressional District race between Republican French Hill and Democrat Patrick Henry Hays.  In August, the Hendrix College/Talk Business Poll had the race virtually tied with Hill at 44% and Hays at 43%.  An internal poll from the Hays campaign being pushed by the DPA this week shows Hays with a three-point lead.

The race is tight and this week it has heated up.  Hill released an ad early this week saying – “Patrick Henry Hays is attacking me falsely to hide his own failed record.”  The ad then attacks Hays as a career politician who has raised his own salary 20 times and raised taxes to pay for it.

The Hays campaign responded by both calling Hill “a liar” for saying they attacked him and by attacking him. In perhaps the most ironic ad of the cycle, the Hays campaign launched the first campaign ad this fall to mention former Democratic State Treasurer Martha Shoffner, who is under indictment for taking bribes hidden in pie boxes.  Hill – like most bankers – gave to the candidate for State Treasurer.  Delta Trust – like most state banks – did business with the treasurer’s office.

There is no merit to the implication that either Hill or Delta Trust had any improper relationship with the Treasurer.  The bond broker that is the root of the Shoffner case is a small bond broker named Steele Stephens in Russellville.  But Hays does not let such facts get in the way of a good attack ad.

Anyway, look for this race to heat up even more. Most observers feel that both Republicans Bruce Westerman in AR-4 and Rep. Rick Crawford in AR-1 should win their elections with relative ease.

“The cavalry is coming,” one Republican operative told me this week when asked about the Hill race.

Part of the cavalry includes American Crossroads – the Republican PAC led by Karl Rove.  A source with this group confirmed to me that they plan to spend $1.5 million beginning in early October.  You could also see the National Republican Congressional Committee get involved.  Although currently they have not yet reserved any airtime, I am told the NRCC is closely watching this race.

Either way – buckle up because the Second District race is about to pick up.