A population problem

“Population growth drives about half of all economic growth,” according to Thomas Piketty, the author of the bestselling book Capital in the 21st Century. If population growth accounts for about half of economic growth, then the people of the River Valley should consider these numbers.

Between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2013, the metropolitan statistical area of Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, DECREASED by an estimated 494 people. Granted that doesn’t seem like a huge number when you look toward Pine Bluff where the Pine Bluff Metro Area’s population decreased by 4,443 people in the same time period.

Many of you won’t remember what a statistical market area is. I had forgot myself.

A statistical market area is defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget as a geographic area that “have at least one urban core area of at least 50,000 population, plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured by commuting ties.” There are 381 of these defined area in the United States. The Fort Smith, AR-OK Metro Area consists of five counties: Sebastian, Crawford, and Franklin counties in Arkansas and Leflore and Sequoyah counties in Oklahoma. The estimated population of these five counties on July 1, 2013 was 279,974, down from 280,468 on April 1, 2010. Based on population size, we were the 165th largest MSA in the United States. So how did we compare to the other MSA’s in Arkansas.

When we look at how we compare to other Arkansas MSAs, we should again be grateful for Pine Bluff. With population fleeing Pine Bluff in the thousands over the last three years compared to Fort Smith’s hundreds, it doesn’t make me feel quite as bad about our own lack of growth. But then, Pine Bluff was dead last in the rankings of all MSAs.

I’m not an economist nor am I a statistician, but when I look at the population table (The table is placed at the end of this essay.) it is easy to tell that the areas with the fast rates of population growth have lower unemployment rates than the metro areas that have population growth rates less than the country’s average growth rate. It appears population growth does affect economic growth in Arkansas too.

Numbers can be easy to misunderstand and misleading at time. Fort Smith the city didn’t lose 494 people. It was the Fort Smith, AR Metropolitan Statistical Area, the five county area considered to be our economic market area. The Census Bureau reported that the population within the city limits of Fort Smith grew by 1,442 in the same period, a growth rate of 1.7%. But a rate of 1.7% is still behind the United States average population growth rate of 2.4%, behind Fayetteville’s population growth rate of 7.3%, behind Rogers’ population growth rate of 7.4%, behind Conway’s population growth rate of 8.3%, and Jonesboro’s population growth rate of 6.2%. Heck, Greenwood’s population grew at a rate of 2.6% – and their drinking water is bad.

For those of you who need to feel better, West Memphis had a negative growth rate of -2.7% and Mena shrank (or is it shrunk?) by 14 people.

Population growth is an indicator of an area’s economic vibrancy and its future, but not the only indicator. However, it would be unwise to ignore that our population growth in our trade area is stagnant and this stunts our economic growth.

The City Wire reported the following on Nov. 3, 2010, the evening of Fort Smith’s last mayoral election when our current mayor, Sandy Sanders, beat the incumbent Ray Baker:

“Sanders, 66 [now 70], campaigned by advocating that a mayor needs to do more to boost economic development, while Baker said Fort Smith’s form of government (manager-council) limits the mayor’s job to largely ceremonial work.”

This is a true statement today. Nothing has changed in the past four years. If Fort Smith is to be more than a shadow of its formal glory, change is required. I’m still looking hard to find an answer but I keep coming back to the idea that a change in the form of government might be needed.

Our current manager-council form of government may provide an efficient structure to operate a city’s day-to-day activities, but it doesn’t allow a strong leader to rise to the occasion, or at least it hasn’t in the past 46 years.

The manager-council form of government is in substance management by committee, a form of management that has never been effective to achieve great things.