Tolbert: Keys To The GOP Attorney General Runoff

On Tuesday, the runoff for the Republican nomination for Attorney General will mercifully come to an end.

The race has certainly been a wild one complete with out-of-state money TV ads and mailers trying to tie Leslie Rutledge with President Obama, and a response from Rutledge accusing David Sterling of getting the outside help by being an attorney for the porn industry.  Of course, this is a nutshell of a muddy few weeks and although it has made for good blogging, it will be nice to see it end.

So who has the advantage going into the runoff on Election Day?  Here are the keys as I see it:

1. May Election Day Momentum – Looking at May 20, the momentum seems to be on side of Leslie Rutledge who not only won by around 8 points, but overwhelmingly won on Election Day versus during the early voting period. However, Sterling won the early vote margin by around 10 points.  Although this shows momentum with Rutledge coming out of the primary, the early vote numbers could indicate more motivated voters for Sterling who may be likely to turn out in June.

2. Local Election Driving Turnout – There are several local races other than the Attorney General’s race that seems to be driving the turnout in the runoff.  Early voting numbers show that Saline County is pulling in the most voters. In 4 days of early voting last week, over 3,200 have cast GOP ballots in Saline County out of around 13,000 statewide.  Saline County has an open sheriff’s race on the ballot as well as a runoff for county assessor.  This puts Saline around 23% of the total GOP turnout compared to around 8% in the May 20 primary (more on this in a second).  The second biggest county is Garland County, which also has a local sheriff’s race.  Garland County is accounting for about 13% of the total GOP early turnout compared to 5% in May.

3. State Senate District 17 – The other big runoff on Tuesday is between State Rep. John Burris and Scott Flippo up in north central Arkansas to fill the open seat that Sen. Johnny Key currently holds.  Private Option opponents have zeroed in on this race to try to take out Burris.  A local runoff for Boone County Judge in Burris’ end of the district could help boost Burris, but who knows who will pull out the victory.  Regardless, this district was one of the areas Sterling did well in May and where he seems to be highly popular with Tea Party voters who should be turning out heavily in this race.

4. Outside Spending – Good analysis from the AP’s Andrew DeMillo on this point over the weekend worth reading.  Thousands of dollars have been spent by the Judicial Crisis Network in the runoff and by American Future Fund back in May hitting Rutledge and praising Sterling on supporting a “Stand Your Ground” law – one of the few issues on which the candidates disagree.  Rutledge has some ads airing as well but not at the same spending levels.  Sterling seems to mainly be doing direct mail.  It remains to be seen if this spending will close the gap for Sterling.

5. Sick of the Mud – As I mentioned, the mud slinging from both sides has made everyone feel nice and dirty.  This tends to drive turnout down from everyone and could keep voters home for both candidates.  This likely would mean the counties with local races could be even more important proportionately.  Pulaski County and Benton County – both counties where Rutledge did well in May – do not have any other GOP races, so the AG runoff is the only reason people have to head to the polls.  As such, turnout should be down for both of these areas.

6. Saline is the Bellwether – Sure, I live there so I am biased, but I predict that whoever wins Saline County will win the runoff.  Not only will this likely be the biggest county, but Rutledge won this county by 7 points in May.  Again in this county, the early vote versus election day vote in May was stark. Sterling led Rutledge 52% to 34% in early voting, but Rutledge led Sterling 56% to 32% on Election Day.  If Sterling closes this 7-point gap in Saline from May, he likely does so statewide; however, if Rutledge holds her ground, then it favors her.

Regardless, make sure and follow me on Twitter @TolbertReport on Tuesday evening where I will try to update results as I get them.