Cook: Mike Ross Risky Campaign Strategy Pays Off

Mike Ross’s campaign has employed a risky strategy and according to recent public polls it appears to have paid off.

Ross’s risky strategy is spending campaign funds early on television in an attempt to introduce himself to the 75% of the state that doesn’t know him yet. Ross’s first television ad featured Governor Mike Beebe and began running in the first week of January.

Often, statewide campaigns prefer to wait until late spring or summer to begin television advertising when voters are paying a bit more attention. Spending significant funds in January is a gamble since a campaign takes a chance of running out of money in the fall when it’s needed most.

But based on real data, it appears Ross’s strategy is paying off.

Polls taken last October had Mike Ross trailing Asa Hutchinson anywhere from four to eight points, according to public polls and and Hutchinson’s internal polls.

However, two public polls released over the past two weeks show Mike Ross has made real movement in the polls.

Republican-leaning polling firm Rasumussen released a poll on February 7 showing Ross now leading Hutchinson 44% to 41%.

Yesterday, Republican political consulting firm Impact Management Group released results of their new statewide poll showing the race tied exactly at 42% for each presumed nominee.

Depending on which poll you believe, Ross has jumped in the polls 6-7 points. That’s proves real movement and is outside the polling margin of error.

Ross could have waited until later this year to spend money on television, but the airwaves will be cluttered with ads from well-funded third-party groups to say nothing of ads from candidates for U.S. Senate, Congress, Lt. Governor and Attorney General. Moreover, ads are significantly more expensive in the fall.

Currently, Hutchinson still has significant statewide name recognition over Ross. Hutchinson has after all been running, and losing, for statewide office for close to 30 years. However, Ross’s internal polling showed that when voters knew both candidates know both candidates, the Democrat is ahead of the Republican by nine points.

If Ross continues to raise significant funds and the current polling trend continues, it appears Asa Hutchinson could be on the way to his fourth defeat for statewide office. That, by the way, would be a dubious record of achievement in Arkansas politics.