Tolbert: Democrats’ Own Polling Shows Them Losing Independents By Double Digits

Democrats today are trumpeting an internal poll showing that the Senate and Governor’s races in Arkansas are virtually tied.

John Brummett – frequent critic of internal polls – was first to post this one online.  The poll conducted by Public Policy Polling and paid for by the liberal group Americans United for Change shows Sen. Mark Pryor tied with Rep. Tom Cotton at 44% each and Asa Hutchinson leading Mike Ross by one point 43% to 44%.

But digging into the details, the poll is horrible news for Democrats.  Why?  The chart from the poll below explains it all…

The “tied races” has a sample with 10 percent more Democrats than Republicans.  This means that while all the candidates are doing well with their base – both Republicans are winning Independents by wide margins.

In the race for Governor, Asa Hutchinson leads Mike Ross by 15 points (50 to 35) while Tom Cotton leads Mark Pryor by 18 points (52 to 34.)  I am not sure if I can overstate how bad this is for Ross and Pryor.  This means even if they beat Republicans by 10 points in turnout in November – that only gets the races tied.

And this is according to their own poll.  It may be even worse for them than this. Who knows?