Political Strategists Size Up 2014 Climate, Congressional Races

GOP strategist Clint Reed and Democratic strategist Robert McLarty said the 2014 election climate has yet to be defined.

Appearing on this week’s Capitol View TV program on KARK, Reed, a principal with Impact Management Group, said independent voters and women voters will be major voting blocs next year, but their attitudes are still not cemented.

“To me, it’s still wide open,” Reed said. “If you look at the Tea Party movement out there, is that something that scares women voters or is it something they embrace? Those are things I think Republicans have to be concerned about. If you’re Democrats, the independent numbers have to scare you to death.”

McLarty, a partner with The Markham Group, said Democrats are making the right moves in 2013 to put themselves in an advantageous position next year.

“It’s going to be a competitive, fun year,” said McLarty. “I think in the Governor’s race, it’s going to be a lot of the Mike Beebe message – jobs, good government, good leadership at the capitol. I think Mike Ross is going to play to that message nicely.”

Reed believes the open seat in the Second Congressional District will also add a new dynamic to 2014 politics.

“I think the Second Congressional District will be the keystone in this election cycle. Not just the Second Congressional District itself, but how it impacts the Senate race, the Governor’s race, and those targeted legislative districts,” Reed said. “In a very tightly controlled House, it can be the difference between a majority Democrat and a majority Republican. I think it’s going to be a very competitive district.”

“I think there’s four or five seats in Pulaski County alone that could decide who is going to get the majority going into the next session,” McLarty added.

He also said that voters are capable of separating Obama Democrats from Arkansas Democrats. McLarty noted that in House seats won by Democrats in 2012, they outperformed the President’s numbers by an average of 25 points.

“I do think Arkansas voters can separate out the scare tactics of Obama versus who they’re actually voting for in a local race,” he said.

Watch more of McLarty’s and Reed’s analyses, including their views on the Fourth Congressional District race. The full video interview can be watched below.