Tolbert: Internal Poll Has Asa Up By 8 Points

An internal poll leaked to The Tolbert Report shows an eight-point lead for Republican Asa Hutchinson over his Democratic opponent Mike Ross.  The statewide poll was conducted by OnMessage, Inc. – a Republican leaning pollster – between October 15 and 17 among 600 likely general election Arkansas voters.  The key findings…

Asa Hutchinson – 46%
Mike Ross – 38%
Undecided – 16%

The poll found that Hutchinson has a 14-point lead with the all-important independent voting bloc, which is becoming the group with which most in Arkansans self-identify.  With independents, Hutchinson has 47% to Ross’ 33% with 21% undecided.

“Asa Hutchinson is well-positioned to defeat Mike Ross and become Arkansas’s next governor,” wrote Wes Anderson in a memo explaining the polls results. “Hutchinson’s support is wider and deeper than Ross’. On a cautionary note, the Hutchinson campaign must prepare for a bruising campaign. Unless the overall political environment in Arkansas turns significantly more positive for the Democrats in general and given Hutchinson’s image and ballot advantages, Ross’ only viable pathway to victory would require him to engage in a high level of negative messaging.”

The memo also states that an internal poll in July found Hutchinson leading Ross 47% to 39% with 14% undecided.