Tolbert: Asa Still Ahead In The Polls

Tolbert Report

by Jason Tolbert ([email protected]) August 7, 2013 5:53 pm 80 views 

In my Stephens Media column this week, I take a look at what was a very good month for Mike Ross.  It is remarkable really when you think about that only a few months ago he was not even a candidate and now he has raised $2 million and had a pretty tough primary opponent drop out.

But anyone in the Ross camp better just keep those champagne bottles on ice for now.  A poll for GOP leaning Harper Polling shows Asa Hutchinson is still in the lead over Ross by eight points.

Q. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you most likely vote for: Asa Hutchinson, Republican or Mike Ross, Democrat?
Hutchinson………………46%
Ross………………………38%
Not sure………………….16%
You can see the full poll with the crosstabs here.  There are lots of interesting notes.
Hutchinson enjoys a larger lead over Ross than Republican candidate Congressman Tom Cotton has over Sen. Mark Pryor. The same poll shows Cotton up two points with 43 percent to Pryor’s 41 percent.  This is somewhat surprising as many believe Pryor is in worse trouble than Ross.  This poll seems to indicate Ross is actually worse off than Pryor.
Ross is losing badly in two Congressional Districts.  As expected, he is getting trounced in Asa’s home district AR3 where Asa leads by over 34 points, but in Ross’s home district AR4 the race is tied.  In addition, Ross trails AR1 by over 19 points, which is a bad sign for Arkansas Democrats who performed well in this district only a couple cycles ago.  The only district Ross leads in is AR2 in central Arkansas where he is up by 7 points.
Q. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you most likely vote for: Asa Hutchinson, Republican or Mike Ross, Democrat?
CD

1

2

3

4
Hutchinson

47.46%

38.69%

61.18%

43.31%
Ross

28.81%

45.99%

27.06%

43.31%
Not sure

23.73%

15.33%

11.76%

13.39%

Asa is winning voters who identify as independents by a two-to-one margin with 49% preferring Hutchinson and only 25% preferring Ross.  This is also a good sign for Republicans up and down the ballot as winning over self-identified independent voters will be key for continuing their success in the last couple cycles.

The takeaway here is that Ross is certainly looking nice from his fundraising advantage and lack of a primary opponent, but Hutchinson is still enjoying a very different environment than he had the last time he ran.