Cook: Poll Shows Pryor In-Line With Independents On Gun Background Checks

A poll released this week by Public Policy Polling shows that 60% of Arkansans support background checks for all gun sales. The poll also showed 40% of people would be more likely to vote for Senator Mark Pryor if he were to support an expanded background check bill.

Case closed. Mark Pryor is toast for voting against the Manchin-Toomey background check bill, isn”t he?

Actually, no. Pryor is more in line with independent voters on this issue than the initial spin from both sides would have you believe.

Let”s take a close look at the crosstabs.

As noted, 60% of Arkansans support background checks for gun sales. However when you look at the partisan make-up of the supporters of background checks, it tells a completely different story.

85% of Democrats support expanded background checks and 48% of Republicans support it, but it only garners 45% support among independents. And note that 43% of independents oppose expanded background checks.

By an overwhelming majority, the main supporters for background checks in Arkansas are Democrats. Independent voters in Arkansas aren’t too crazy about them. This likely explains, in part, why Pryor voted against the Manchin-Toomey version of background checks.

Voters were also asked if Pryor were to vote for expanded background checks would that make them more or less likely to vote for Pryor. Among Democrats, 69% would be more likely to support him.

But 45% of independent voters would actually be less likely to support Pryor if he voted for background checks, and only 28% of them would be more likely to support him if were to support background checks.

By voting against the Manchin-Toomey background check bill, Pryor has ticked off a large number of Democrats. But among the critical demographic of independent voters, he’s right in line with what they casino online want.

Pryor has to walk a tightrope on this issue. He needs to keep the Democratic base happy so they’ll turn out to vote next year, but he can’t risk losing independent voters. Right now, he’s having a tough time with Democrats, this is partly due to his vote, obviously, and the fact he doesn’t have an announced Republican opponent.

He can’t yet make the case to Democrats that while he can’t always vote exactly the way they want him to, he’s ten times better than Republican Congressman Tom Cotton who will vote against them every time. Cotton is quickly gaining a reputation as a hard-line extremist and Pryor can use Cotton’s voting history, and past statements, to show that the freshman Republican is out of step with the mainstream of Arkansas.

However, one small criticism I have of Pryor’s campaign is that it’s taken them a while to forcefully push back on this issue. For example, I don’t recall hearing anything from the Pryor campaign on how independents were with him on this issue when PPP released their poll.

But to his credit, Pryor goes up on television this week explaining and defending his vote on background checks.

He’s smartly avoiding the mistakes of Blanche Lincoln in 2009 who had a huge warchest, but didn’t use it to define herself when under attack in the off-year. We saw how that turned out.

In the end, Pryor is taking heat from the right and the left over the issue of gun background checks. If he can win the crucial middle and find a way to keep the Democratic base in-line, he might just come out on top on this issue.