Grain crop vulnerable to heat over next six weeks

Rain is seen as a blessing from the heavens unless it keeps farmers from planting or harvesting on time.

As the rain continued to fall throughout the spring planting season, farmers from Benton County to Manila, Ark., were kept out of the fields. The same could be said across the Great Plains and into the North Central region of the country.

Matt King, economist and market analyst with Arkansas Farm Bureau, said 43% of the nation’s corn crop was planted in the same week and nearly one month behind schedule which puts almost half the crop tasseling around the end of July.

“As long as weather stays favorable with cooler nights, yields should be okay, but if the temperature heats up over the next few weeks, yields will likely be impacted. The same is true for cotton and soybeans as they are pollinating a month later than usual,” King said.

The estimates on corn acreage plantings were reduced by 30%, or 40 million bushels, because of the heavy spring rains, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

King said statewide corn acreage was diverted to soybeans at the last minute because of the shorter growing cycle. And rice farmers had to resort to sowing their fields by plane, which can be challenging.

The USDA Crop Progress report released June 17 indicated farmers have come close to catching up with previous year’s numbers, but there is still more than six crucial weeks to go in this growing season.

The amount of the corn crop that has emerged at 92% was five percentage points behind the five-year average of 97% in the corn-growing states, the USDA said. There was little change in the condition of the crop with 64% rated good to excellent, compared with 63% the previous week and 63% at the same time last year.

Soybeans planted as of June 16 were 85%, lagging the five-year average of 91% by six percentage points, but emergence at 66% lagged the average of 80% a bit more significantly. The crop was deemed 64% good to excellent, up from last year’s good-to-excellent rating of 56% at the same date.

In the main winter wheat-growing states 89% of the crop was in good shape. However, there was just 11% harvested at least two weeks behind normal schedule. The percentage of the crop in good-to-excellent condition at 31% remained the same as the previous week but was well below 54% a year earlier.

Weather conditions in 2013 have been markedly different – primarily wet and cool – and areas remaining in drought comprise primarily the western edges of growing areas.

Local companies like Tyson Foods, Simmons Foods, George’s and OK Foods buy millions of bushels of corn and soybean meal to feed out their chicken flocks throughout the year. These companies keep a close eye of the grain markets at all times as feed comprises a substantial expense. It takes about 1.2 pounds of corn to produce one pound of live chicken in addition to soybean meal, the two main feed ingredients.

At the market height late last summer Tyson Foods CEO Donnie Smith said the company had about 52 cents per pound in a live bird.

King said corn prices remain volatile ranging from $4 to $7 a bushel as the impacts of global competition out of South America and vulnerable U.S. supplies have speculators dabbling in the commodity markets. He expects soybean prices will continue to feel pressure because of the acreage picked up this year.

King said the future’s market in soybeans appears to be overpriced since the better-than-expected USDA crush report. November soybean futures moved below the key $13 level this week as export inspections were disappointing, at only 2.75 million bushels.

USDA estimates the average on-farm price for 2013 production between $9.75 and $11.75, which will likely put more downward pressure on future’s pricing.

King said Arkansas farmers planted 270,000 acres of cotton this year, although it took farmers until "May 35 or May 45" to get it planted.

“There is no such thing as planting cotton in June,” King explained. “But on occasion like this year, farmers had to add days to the month of May, at least in theory.”