Rothenberg Moves Arkansas Senate Race To ‘Toss-Up’

The Rothenberg Political Report moved their rating for a half-dozen U.S. Senate races with a shift in the Republican direction based on the swirling scandals in Washington, D.C.  Included in the group is the Arkansas Senate race where Sen. Mark Pryor faces re-election. They move this race from from “Toss-up/Tilt Democrat” to “Pure Toss-up.” They write…

For the past few years, the public’s focus has been on Republicans’ opposition to the president’s agenda, their desire to shrink (even cripple) government and their conservatism. But the IRS scandal, along with controversies involving the attack in Benghazi and the Justice Department’s collecting of journalists’ telephone records, has changed the political narrative.

While the Oklahoma tornado tragedy will dominate media coverage for the next few days, the new political narrative that will re-emerge when journalists return to politics involves questions about what the administration knew, said and did. The new focus on the Obama administration puts it on the defensive and should boost enthusiasm on the political right throughout this year.

While we don’t know how long the focus will stay on the administration — or whether Republicans will stumble over the investigations or matters of public policy — between now and the November midterms, it is undeniable that recent events have altered, at least for now, the trajectory of the 2014 elections.

“Senate Democrats – who pressured the IRS to target conservative groups – have an obligation to defend the citizens and organizations that were bullied by their own federal government,” said NRSC Communications Director Brad Dayspring, who also pointed out that Pryor took $11,000 in contributions from an IRS employee PAC. “Mark Pryor is a United States Senator, and that requires action not just hollow press releases – but he continues to hide behind them.”

I will add that these Washington D.C. scandals could be exacerbated by the Shoffner scandal back home.  Of course, Sen. Pryor has nothing to do with Martha Shoffner’s problems, but a Democrat taking bribes hidden in pie boxes hurts the ticket as a whole and certainly fits the narrative Rothenberg describes above.

Previously, Rothernberg listed Sen. Pryor as the “most vulnerable senator seeking re-election next year.”

The other major rating group – The Cook Political Report – has the race rated “Lean D.”

“When Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor was up for re-election to a second term in 2008, Republicans didn’t even field a nominee, and Pryor was re-elected with 80 percent of the vote. Just five years later, Pryor seems to be facing a different situation, and there is little doubt that he will get a much more competitive race next year,” they write in their analysis. But they add “Until Republicans have a nominee, the race is in the Lean Democratic column.”

I would look for both ratings to shift whenever a candidate formally announces against Pryor.  I have little doubt that Congressman Tom Cotton will do so sometime this summer.  In fact, I already know he is taking steps to have a campaign team in place for when he does announce.  No one is on the record yet, but it is clear it is fully expected Cotton will run.