Is GOP Primary Geography Shifting?

Conventional wisdom in a Republican primary is that the candidate from northwest Arkansas has a strong enough advantage that they are difficult to beat.  I wrote about this back in 2010 during the Republican U.S. Senate primary when Sen. John Boozman – at that time the incumbent Congressman from northwest Arkansas – won an eight-way race without a runoff.  From 2010…

Traditionally, Republican primaries are won and lost in northwest Arkansas. The 3rd Congressional District contains close to half of the Republican primary voters.  And even more concentrated than that is Benton County, with roughly one-fourth of the statewide GOP turnout.

But some are wondering if this has changed in the last few cycles as more primary voters have chosen a Republican ballot.  We have seen this trend occur as the state has reddened and Republicans have had success in November.

In the past, many conservative-leaning and moderate independent voters chose to vote in the Democratic primary.  At one time, winning the Democratic nomination was tantamount to winning the general election. But we have already seen signs of this shifting and as it does, the voting strength of northwest Arkansas is diluted.

In the 2006 Republican primary, Benton County made up over 24 percent of the primary turnout.  In the most recent 2012 primary, this was down to just over 14 percent as turnout increased across the state.  Other parts of the state have also seen an increase.  Saline County went from about 5 percent to 7 percent of the GOP primary turnout, while Faulkner and Garland counties increased from about 3 percent to 5 percent.

You can get lost in the numbers quickly, but the point is Benton County has a steady Republican primary turnout of around 20,000 (around 22,000 in Presidential years and around 18,000 in non-Presidential years).  Since most everyone there already gets a GOP ballot, it is not likely to go much higher.  As other counties begin to request a GOP ballot, you will see a shift.

We have also seen an uptick in new voter registrations for Republicans, which was up 9 percent before last year’s elections.

In addition, in past elections there were often several competitive races on the Democratic side and hardly any on the Republican side.  Most local races, such as the sheriff and county judge, were decided in the Democratic primary.  This is also beginning to change.

Consider the number of candidates already being talked about on the Republican side.  As I wrote earlier this week, there is a strong likelihood that Arkansas will have 5 statewide Republican primary races for the constitutional offices of Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor, and State Treasurer.

Down in south Arkansas’ Fourth Congressional District, Lt. Governor Mark Darr and State Rep. Bruce Westerman could face off in a competitive GOP primary if Congressman Tom Cotton runs for the U.S. Senate against Mark Pryor.   This primary will have to compete with Mike Ross loyalists voting for their former Congressman of twelve years who will need their votes against Bill Halter in the Democratic primary.  Of course, this cuts both ways, but Ross does have a pretty well-oiled south Arkansas political machine.

In short, there are signs that more voters outside of Republican-rich northwest Arkansas are voting in the GOP primary, and there are indications that this trend will continue to shift.  This is vital to the strategy of House Speaker Davy Carter – the State Representative Cabot and son of the Delta – if he has a chance to compete with northwest Arkansas’ former Congressman Asa Hutchinson.  If he does decide to run, Davy would have to change the game which is doable but might still be a bit too soon.