Have Legislative Democrats Set Themselves Up for Electoral Failure?

In the middle of a session, it”s easy to get lost in the weeds of the legislative process. I want to step back to look at the big picture implications of this session for both political parties and as such have come up with a theory. I”ll state the theory in the form a question:

Have legislative Democrats set themselves up for electoral failure?

It seems this legislative session may end whereby Democrats” attempts to do the right thing in providing health insurance to poor folks actually hurts Democrats” prospects come November 2014. Democrats may accidentally have given away the store.

If the Medicaid private option passes, the credit likely (and wrongly in many ways) may go to legislative Republicans. At the same time, Democrats may have allowed tax cuts for wealthy Arkansans to pass with nary a fight in order to get the Medicaid private option passed. Democrats may have ceded a correct and winning electoral issue of economic populism to Republicans.

By the end of the session, legislative Republicans could possibly claim credit for insuring poor folks, cutting taxes and implementing portions of their SIMPLE plan.

On the other hand, Democrats may end the session with little to point to in the way of major legislative accomplishments. They may have also not defined themselves clearly in what they strongly opposed, the Voter ID Poll Tax fight notwithstanding. Legislative Democrats did not offer up a detailed agenda this session, so voters really don”t know what they”re fighting for. What will Democrats run on come November 2014?

Moreover, since Democrats have not vigorously fought the tax cuts geared toward to the wealthy, the average voter won”t know the tax cut Republicans are crowing about come 2014 won”t directly benefit them.

Which leads me to another question: Are legislative Democrats just going to go along with tax cuts that mainly benefit the wealthy in order to pass the Medicaid private option? Or is there a strategy afoot to let GOP-backed tax cuts pass the House only to let die a quiet death in the Senate? Then-State Representative Ed Garner”s 2011 capital gains tax cut comes to mind when it passed the House only to die in a Senate committee.

Unless something dramatic occurs quickly, Democrats may have inadvertently put themselves in the classic position of winning the battle, but losing the war.

Here”s where I”m coming from with my possibly cockamamie theory.

Legislative Republicans initially opposed expanding Medicaid to cover Arkansas”s poorest citizens, which caused Governor Beebe to find another way to get aid to the people that desperately need it. Arkansas already is on the forefront of Medicaid reform due to Beebe”s leadership and Beebe already has a good working relationship with Kathleen Sebellius, the Health and Human Services Cabinet Secretary in the Obama administration. Beebe was able to cut a deal with the Feds whereby Arkansas could cover the citizens in need by using private health insurance. Arkansas is the first state to have this option available and this was due to Beebe”s brokering of the deal.

What then happened is that Arkansas Republicans quickly took credit for this deal and have co-opted Beebe”s message. Republicans now have a talking point that they forced Beebe to ditch Medicaid expansion and use private insurance instead.

Yesterday, Governor Beebe told reporters if the Medicaid private option is approved by the Legislature, he would go along with tax cuts up to $100 million, but declined to outline which tax cuts he would support. It appears if the Medicaid private option passes, there will be substantial savings in the budget, which means there could be room for tax cuts. The issue is who should get these tax breaks: the middle-class or the wealthy?

Which leads us to tax cuts. On Tuesday, the House Committee on Revenue and Tax approved Rep. Charlie Collins bill, HB 1585, which gives a very small tax cut to middle-class and lower-income Arkansans, but a very large tax cut to wealthy Arkansans.

For perspective, 76% of the total benefits resulting from Collins” tax cut would go to taxpayers who make $155,000 or more.

Not one person from the Democratic-side of the aisle spoke against Collins bill, which cuts $57 million from the state budget, but representatives from advocacy groups such as Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families and the Arkansas Public Policy Panel did oppose Collins” bill. Rich Huddleston with AACF that Arkansans making between $29,900 and $49,000 would only receive an average tax cut of $7 under Collins bill.  Not much tax relief for the middle-class under Collins bill.

Since no Democrats spoke against the bill today in committee, Republicans won the framing argument in today”s media coverage since the press simply reported that the a House Committee had advanced an income tax cut and not who would truly benefit from these tax cuts. Check out this AP article for an example of what I mean.

Representative Fred Love had a worthy Earned Income Tax Credit bill (HB1240) that would have provided tax relief to working families. No one from the Democratic-side of the aisle spoke for the bill, and Democrats did not vigorously push this bill. The Republican-stacked committee tabled Love”s bill on Tuesday, which effectively kills it for the session.

Later in the day, Speaker of the House Davy Carter unveiled his capital gains tax cut bill which also gives a disproportionate amount of tax cuts to the wealthy. Once again, no one from the Democratic-side spoke against the bill and it passed from committee.

To be clear, the GOP-controlled House Committee on Revenue and Tax killed a tax cut bill for working families, but passed two tax cut bills geared toward the wealthy.

In the past, Arkansas Democrats have vigorously fought against tax cuts that just benefit the wealthy and stood up for middle-class and lower-income citizens. Unfortunately, I am not seeing any of that fight from Democrats this session on the aforementioned issues. No press releases or talking points from the Democratic legislative caucuses/DPA, no press conferences arranged by Democrats on how Republicans want to give major tax breaks to the wealthy.

Arkansas has a long history of economic populism, believing we should fight the little guy and historically it”s been the Democrats who have carried this banner into battle. However, it now seems that Arkansas Democrats have ceded the issue of economic populism to Republicans, even though the GOP-proposed tax cuts directly benefit the rich folks and not the little folks.

Since Democrats are not yet fighting back, Republicans are getting away with it and making it appear it is they who are fighting for the common Arkansan and not Democrats. All voters hear is the Republican tax message and nothing from Democrats.

Legislative Democrats may not have much to run on in 2014 because they ceded too much ground to the Republicans.

To partly fix the problem, here is what I believe legislative Democrats should do asap:

First, take back the issue of economic populism by openly fighting all tax cut bills that mainly benefit wealthy Arkansans. Voters are already on their side on this issue, but Democrats have failed to highlight what the Republican plans really entail. Republicans have the majorities to pass their bills, but at least Democrats are on record as fighting.

Second, fight for tax cuts that mainly benefit the real job creators – meaning middle-class and lower-income Arkansans. Rep. Warwick Sabin has one such bill, and don”t forget about the complete elimination of the remaining grocery tax. Also, look for a way to breathe life back into Rep. Love”s EITC bill.

Third, develop a detailed legislative Democratic agenda. What do Arkansas Democrats stand for and stand against? In 2012 many legislative Democrats ran on a platform of working with Governor Beebe and in many instances it worked, and in others, not so much. That message won”t work in 2014 as Governor Beebe is term-limited.

There is still time for legislative Democrats to take a stand and frame the message that they are fighting for the middle-class while legislative Republicans are fighting for tax cuts for the wealthy.

I don”t believe Democrats should get in a tizzy over who gets credit for Medicaid private option since what”s important is that more Arkansans get access to health care and not who gets credit. Plus, the lion-share of the credit should go to Governor Beebe anyway since only he could have brokered this deal in the first-place. Of course, it never hurts to let Arkansans know that it was Democrats who kept pushing in the first place to provide health care to the working poor.

However, legislative Democrats have got to show they are fighting for middle-class Arkansans otherwise they can expect larger Republican legislative majorities in 2015.