Mike Ross Vs. Bill Halter?

Yesterday the Internet rumor mill buzzed with the prospect of Mike Ross changing his mind and entering the Governor’s race. John Brummett kicked off the speculation, blogging that he heard from “an ever-reliable source” that Ross was 90% in the Governor’s race.

Will Ross get in or not? That is the question insider Democrats are wondering and, as of late, Ross has been tight-lipped about his political future.

If Ross jumps back in, he’ll need to explain the back-and-forth he created by informally getting in the Governor’s race in July of 2011 when he announced his retirement from Congress and then formally got out of elective politics by taking a job with a power company only to then reverse himself and get back into the Governor’s race. Did y’all follow all of that?

To be true, this is inside baseball and it won’t make a difference come May of 2014. But it makes me wonder: if Ross does get back in, is that a subtle way of saying he was worried about his prospects of defeating a then-untarnished Dustin McDaniel in a Democratic primary?

A Mike Ross vs. Bill Halter would make for the first hotly-contested Democratic gubernatorial primary since 1982 when Bill Clinton faced off against former Congressman Jim Guy Tucker and former Lt. Governor Joe Purcell in his comeback bid to office after losing to Frank White two years earlier.   Purcell was the Winston Bryant of his time – holding numerous down-ballot offices, but he just could never make it to the top.

I’ve written previously that Mike Ross is probably one of only two potential Democratic candidates who could give Halter a serious run for his money. The other was Little Rock businessman John Burkhalter, provided he dumps a truckload of personal money into the race.

A Ross entry would make it a pure toss-up race, however, there is a reasonable school of thought that believes that the former Congressman might even start off with a bit of lead over the former Lt. Governor.

Ross would start off the primary with the 4th Congressional District sewn up tight. That is a formidable vote base. Plus, on a statewide basis the Arkansas Democratic primary is actually more moderate-to-conservative than some pundits realize, which would be helpful to Ross given his conservative credentials.

However, Ross has two vote obstacles to consider.

First, if Republicans have a hotly-contested statewide race, it likely causes many conservative voters Ross was counting on to vote in the Republican Party’s primary. Second, if it’s Ross vs. Halter in a run-off, the progressive-to-moderate wing of the Democratic Party may decide that Ross is too conservative and come out in force for Halter. That wing is a small part of Arkansas Democrats since as a whole Arkansas Democrats skew moderate-to-conservative, but in a run-off, the minority can become the majority.

I did a little bit of work for Ross when he first ran back in 2000 and I can testify to the fact that he’s probably the hardest working candidate I’ve ever met. I note his work ethic because to run for Governor it means, unfortunately, your main focus must be on fundraising and Ross’ fundraising track record is impressive. Ross will have plenty of money to mount a full-fledged race.

The unanswered questions at this time is where does Bill Halter’s money come from? In his 2010 Senate bid, which I also worked on, Halter raised about $4 million dollars in less than than 4 months, but that was for a federal office. It’s tough to get big, out-of-state donors in Chicago, California, etc. excited about the next Governor of Arkansas. The first filing report due on April 15 will give us a sense of Halter fundraising prospects.

A Ross vs. Halter would be make for hot gubernatorial primary that Arkansas Democrats really haven’t seen in more than a generation.

Back in the 1970’s Arkansas had epic primaries in `70, `72, 74, and `78.  Since then, statewide Democratic primaries usually just have one prominent candidate who is opposed by a group of lesser candidates.  There are obvious exceptions in `82 and the 2010 U.S. Senate primary, and the 2010 primary only lasted 3 1/2 months since Halter only entered the race in early March of that year.

The political writer in me loves the prospect of a hot Democratic gubernatorial primary where great issues are discussed and the future of the Arkansas Democratic Party is debated.

Of course, this all depends on Mike Ross’ final, and this time we mean final, decision. Will he or won’t he? Only Mike Ross knows for sure.