The Womack Domino

With the filing of exploratory papers by Curtis Coleman yesterday, we have the first Republican campaign for governor.  But there is a certainty that bigger names are waiting to enter.  I would be shocked if former Congressman Asa Hutchinson does not throw his hat in the ring sometime this month.

I wrote last week in my column for Stephens Media about one big piece of the puzzle – GOP Congressman Steve Womack who could be a candidate for either the Senate race against Sen. Mark Pryor (D) or for the governor’s mansion. I observed…

This means national money will be available to the right GOP candidate (to challenge Pryor). Who is that?

One potential candidate – Congressman Tim Griffin – took himself out of the running last month when he was appointed to the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

Third District Congressman Steve Womack is the next name on the list, hailing from the same Northwest Arkansas district that Sen. John Boozman parlayed into a Senate seat. The geography of the Republican primary is such that this district has a large impact on the Republican nominee, which gives Womack a distinct advantage in a primary.

The question for Womack is not so much could he get the nomination, but will he run. Although he has done quite well in his two years in Congress, his background is more suited for an executive position, not a legislative one.

Prior to his election to Congress, he served successfully as mayor of Rogers for over 12 years. His demeanor – for better or worse — is suited more to being the boss than one member of a large body. His background and personality may lead him to run for governor rather than U.S. Senate.

It is hard to guess what Womack will end up doing, but his decision will likely have a domino effect on many races.

If he runs for Senate – as some believe he is leaning – then he likely will be the nominee to take on Pryor.  This also opens up his northwest Arkansas Congressional District, which will attract a slew of candidates. In 2010, there was a eight-way primary when then-Congressman Boozman opted to run against Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

If he runs for governor against Hutchinson, it will be interesting to see where the establishment lines up and if other candidates such as Coleman can get enough support to force a runoff.  In addition, this opens up the Senate race for someone such as freshly-minted Congressman Tom Cotton who continues to cause the beltway media to swoon. That would also open up his south Arkansas district with a Republican primary likely there as well.

In short, Womack is the domino that will cause many moving parts to fall in place.  But his decision may still take a while. Currently he is receiving praise from some and criticism from others for voting for the fiscal cliff deal spliting from the other two Arkansas House Republicans and voting with Democratic Congressman Mike Ross.

An additional note although somewhat related – I will also point you to my column this week where I call on Attorney General Dustin McDaniel to answer some lingering questions.  It has been two weeks now. Christmas and New Year’s are both behind us.  Anybody heard from him lately?  Surely he will be seen before the Coon Super next week right?