McDaniel’s Sinking Poll Numbers Bode Trouble For Governor’s Bid (UPDATED)

In my last column about Attorney General Dustin McDaniel and his recent controversies, I noted that the AG would likely face some unfavorable polling numbers soon.  That day is today.

Public Policy Polling released a general election poll pairing McDaniel against former Congressman Asa Hutchinson.  The poll was paid for by Jobs Now, a union-aligned organization. I don't know why that group polled the race and then publicly released the numbers, but I could reasonably speculate that potential Democratic candidate Bill Halter might have a hand in its release.  Pure speculation mind you, with no facts to back it up.

Be that as it may, PPP is a reputable polling firm with a track record of accurate polling.

The PPP poll first tested the favorable and unfavorable ratings of both candidates.

Here are the numbers for favorable & unfavorable ratings:

Asa Hutchinson: 39/30
Dustin McDaniel: 25/40

Both candidates have similar numbers for total name recognition: 69% for Asa and 65% for McDaniel when you add up the numbers of people who can offer up an opinion on the two candidates.

Frankly, there's no other way to say it, but right now McDaniel's personal numbers are in the figurative toilet.

Only 25% rate the 6-year incumbent favorably and 40% rate him unfavorably.  Those numbers are likely reflective of McDaniel's recent scandal that dominated the news for many days. Moreover, a grand total of 67% of poll respondents had heard ” a lot” or “some” about McDaniel's recent controversy.  The news of McDaniel's indiscretion has seeped into general election voters consciousnesses.

Hutchinson's personal numbers are nothing to brag about, but more people view him favorably than unfavorably.

When voters were asked who they would vote for governor in 2014, here is how they responded:

Hutchinson: 46%
McDaniel:  33%
Not sure:  22%

Asa currently leads by 13% according to the PPP poll.  Last month, McDaniel released an internal poll showing him losing to Asa, but within striking distance, 44% for Asa and 41% for McDaniel.  If both polls are to be believed, McDaniel has dropped 8 points in the past month.

Overall, these are some of the worst numbers I've ever seen for a Democratic candidate for statewide office in Arkansas.  McDaniel's favorable poll numbers are under water by 15% and after serving as Attorney General for six years he still only gets 33% of the vote.  And the fact that 33% of polls respondents are Democrats likely means he is only getting Democratic votes.  PPP is releasing a full poll report tomorrow and we can then see how independents  responded.

McDaniel still remains the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination, but right now he's too weak to be an effective general election nominee. Some argue that McDaniel has time to reverse the trend, but that remains debatable.

The most effective way to reverse this trend is through television ads, but those won't likely come until literally February/March of 2014 when McDaniel starts running ads for the primary.  Therefore, McDaniel's general election numbers are likely to remain underwater for the coming year.

Moreover, these numbers could start to harden, making it almost impossible to reverse them.

No way to sugarcoat this, but Democrats face major challenges for the 2014 gubernatorial race.  Our once almost-presumptive nominee poll numbers are pathetic and our bench is not deep enough for multiple options to replace him.

What happens next? Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

Someone call Vic Snyder and see if he's ready to ride out of political retirement.

UPDATE: Public Policy Polling today released the cross-tabs for their poll on the Arkansas Governor's race giving a more complete on McDaniel's morass.

Digging deeper into the numbers, the future looks bleak for a possible general election run by Attorney General Dustin McDaniel.

Among independents, McDaniel is viewed favorably by only 18% of these voters and viewed unfavorably by 44% of independent voters. Asa Hutchinson receives a 36% favorable rating and a 32% unfavorable rating with independents.

Moreover, among partisan voters, Hutchinson currently enjoys more support from his base then McDaniel does from his. Among Republicans, Hutchinson receives a 58% favorable rating and a 10% unfavorable rating.  However, among Democrats, McDaniel gets only a 41% favorable rating and a 30% unfavorable rating.

In the horse-race question, Asa vs. Dustin, Hutchinson leads McDaniel among independents 49% to 22%.

The poll also ask questions about Asa Hutcinson's new role within the NRA, along with other issues. You can read the full results here.

Hutchinson is not particularly personally popular with independents, but he's still crushing McDaniel with these voters.  This cannot be overemphasized.

With only 18% of independent voters viewing McDaniel favorably and with McDaniel only getting 22% of the independent vote, many questions must be answered very soon:

1) How and when do these numbers get better for Dustin McDaniel?
2) What case can McDaniel make that he's still the best candidate to face-off against the Republican nominee?
3)  What is McDaniel's plan to rehabilitate himself with independent voters?  Will it work?
4)  Should Democrats stick it out and hope his numbers get better?
5)  Do Democrats need to recruit another candidate without the toxicity that currently surrounds McDaniel?

I have more questions than answers at this point.

I was impressed with how McDaniel handled himself at his press conference last week, but when I learn that our Democratic Attorney General only has a 18% favorable rating among independents it raises major red flags and I have concerns about him being our gubernatorial nominee.

In light of all that we know now, can somebody explain to me why I should support McDaniel for Governor?  I'm trying to keep an open mind on this whole issue, but it's getting tougher.