Can Dustin McDaniel Survive And Should He?

What a difference a week makes in Arkansas politics.

Last week, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel released an internal poll showing him leading potential Democratic primary rivals John Burkhalter and Bill Halter with McDaniel getting 54% of the vote.

Today, McDaniel admitted that he had an “inappropriate” relationship with a Hot Springs attorney who is currently immersed in a nasty child custody case with her ex-husband.  Talk Business’ Roby Brock broke this story and you can read more details here.

This bombshell completely shakes up the 2014 Governor’s race.

Can Dustin McDaniel’s campaign for governor survive this bombshell?  And should Democrats even allow him to survive as a candidate?

If you asked me last week, I would have predicted that McDaniel had a 75% chance of winning the gubernatorial nomination.  He’s the sitting Attorney General, with a statewide network, and over $1 million already raised for the 2014 race.  McDaniel was the front-runner for the Democratic nomination and had a fairly good shot at being our next Governor.

Now it’s not so clear.

When discussing McDaniel’s political future, I must share a political philosophy of mine that I call “The Law of Little Things.”  Basically it comes down to the fact that voters are busy with their daily lives and often don’t have the time or desire to focus on all the big picture facets of government. If you’re raising kids, running a business, etc., you aren’t likely to focus every time a politician flaps their gums on certain big things, but you just might pay attention to the little things.

For example, politicians can debate spending tens of millions of dollars, but those numbers can become too abstract for voters to key-in on and they don’t focus on every nuance.

However if, for example, an elected official misuses a state-owned vehicle, voters quickly key-in and their outrage is swift and palpable.  Remember the state-owned car vehicle debacle of 2010?  Classic example of “The Law of Little Things.”

Ask yourself, how many voters can tell you about whether or not Attorney General McDaniel had authority to spend millions of lawsuit settlement dollars as he sees fit, raising legitimate questions if he should be allowed to do so without legislative oversight?

Now ask yourself how many people will know about McDaniel’s “inappropriate” relationship this time tomorrow?

McDaniel’s scandal falls under the “Law of Little Things.” There is no abstractness to an admission of an affair, or an “inappropriate” relationship as McDaniel has referred to it.  People get it and in a moderate-to-conservative state, they don’t like it.

Does McDaniel have enough political savvy or luck to survive this scandal?  One silver lining for him is that this broke in December 2012, long before a May 2014 Democratic primary. There may be time to repair the damage, ask for forgiveness and weather the storm, but McDaniel has no room for error.

However, the way Dustin McDaniel has handled this scandal so far it leaves me to believe he might not have what it takes to weather the storm.  That could change, but it remains to be seen.

If McDaniel stays in, the coming months will be extremely difficult for his candidacy.  Money will dry up as donors will be apprehensive about contributing to a candidate who at this time is damaged goods.  Key business leaders and elected officials are likely to sit on their hands for quite some time and not jump on the McDaniel bandwagon.   Every time the press mentions McDaniel’s gubernatorial candidacy, this scandal is likely to be mentioned in some capacity.

A question that Democrats must wrestle with now is should they accept as their gubernatorial nominee a candidate with this stain on his record?

And, while it’s unseemly to speculate and I hesitate to even ask, but before Democrats could forgive and forget we must know now, was this the only time?  And let me quickly add McDaniel need not publicly answer the horribly indelicate question I raise, but it must be answered in private to someone at some point.

The press is certainly going to ask him directly at some point.

Democrats must be prepared for the rough race Republicans will run if McDaniel is the Democratic nominee.  Not only will McDaniel have to fend off the expected attacks any Democratic nominee must be prepared for, now he must fend off this line of attack as well.

Review the 2001 3rd Congressional District special election in the Republican primary to see how it might play out.  Then-State Rep. Jim Hendren was the front-runner to replace retiring Asa Hutchinson and news of Hendren’s affair broke via a divorce proceeding.  Hendren is now a State Senator-elect, but it took him 11 years to come back politically.

I am not ready to unequivocally say McDaniel is done as a viable 2014 gubernatorial candidate, but I’m fairly close.

With today’s bombshell there is now a large enough opening for either former Lt. Governor Bill Halter or businessman and Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter to drive a MAC truck through.  (Those guys should spend big bucks asap sending out Christmas cards with pictures of them and their families as a way to draw a subtle contrast.) And there’s certainly a possibility that another credible candidate emerges on the Democratic side.

With all of that said, this coming week will make or break Dustin McDaniel’s political future. How well does McDaniel handle this and how does the public respond?  All of that is unknown at this time, but it will be fascinating to watch.