Barth Predicts A Gentle GOP Breeze In 2012
by June 20, 2012 10:05 am 68 views
Dr. Jay Barth, our polling partner with Hendrix College, uses his Arkansas Times column this week to assess the prevailing political winds across the state.
Barth sees a “gentle GOP breeze,” not the gail-force winds seen in 2010.
From his column:
Undeniably, the Arkansas Democratic Party faces challenges in 2012. The Republican Party has recruited higher-quality candidates for the legislature than ever before, while Democratic Party activists remain shell-shocked by the 2010 election cycle.
And antipathy towards President Obama remains widespread in the state, as evidenced by Tea Party “jokes,” conversations overheard in doctor's waiting rooms and polling data.
trong>Anti-Democratic sentiment, while intense in pockets, appears to have reached a plateau since 2010. In 2012, it seems more like a gentle breeze that is blowing in the GOP's direction. In the closely divided, recently redistricted legislature, therefore, outcomes will be determined not by partisanship alone, but instead by a district-by-district mix of geography, ideology and candidate personality.
Barth lays out arguments for how these various factors could play out in key legislative races. Read more at this link.