For Democrats, A Fight In The First

While there will be plenty of action in the Fourth District between both parties’ primaries, the First District also received an unexpected twist that will have political pundits second-guessing the outcome in advance.

With a quick entry in the race earlier this year, Democrats lined up behind Rep. Clark Hall (D-Marvell), the chairman of the House State Agencies Committee that oversaw the controversial Congressional redistricting map.

The First District grew south instead of north and that will benefit Democrats in the fall as those more Democratic-leaning counties filter into the vote totals. However, the power base of the First District appears to be in the Jonesboro-Paragould corridor of northeast Arkansas’ Craighead and Greene counties.

Hall, a long-time farmer and three-term state representative who comes from the southern part of the district, was headed towards a two-man showdown with first-time political candidate, Gary Latanich, an economics professor at Arkansas State University.  Hall didn’t have an exceptional first round of fundraising, but he did better than might be expected and he picked up early endorsements from a spate of regional state legislators, Cong. Mike Ross and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, who calls the First District his home base.

With early support and some fundraising momentum, Hall looked like the odds-on-favorite to gain the nomination.

But that scenario changed when, on the last day of filing, first-term Jonesboro prosecutor Scott Ellington joined the Democratic fray.  Ellington gained notoriety last summer when he hammered out an Alford plea with the West Memphis Three, a deal that allowed the convicted killers to go free with time served while the state maintained record of their convictions for murdering three children nearly 18 years ago. The high-profile, controversial case earned international attention.

Ellington made the call on the plea bargain, but it is unclear how it might play out on his political future.

He is expected to be a formidable challenger to Hall, however, if for no other reason that he comes from the heavily-populated Jonesboro area and he’s been elected to office in the region.

Latanich is a long-shot to win the nomination, but with progressive positions on a number of core Democratic issues, he could appeal to a big enough sector of the primary base to force a Hall-Ellington run-off.

“The Democratic establishment got behind Clark Hall early because, after others declined to run, they believed Hall would be the eventual nominee,” said Cook. “Ellington’s late entry surprised Democrats and instantly created a competitive primary. The primary is likely a complete toss-up at this point due to Ellington’s strength in vote-rich northeast Arkansas and Hall’s early fundraising success and locking down of key endorsements.”

The winner of the primary faces incumbent Republican Cong. Rick Crawford, who scored a historic and unprecedented win for the GOP in 2010.  Polling continues to show Crawford as vulnerable based more on his lack of name recognition than his positions on particular issues or votes, although as of late, Crawford has been providing ammunition for his opponents.