Romney Likely Winner In Illinois Primary But Slog Will Continue

Voters in Illinois today will continue the slow progression of the Republican Presidential Primary.  Due to the rules of the state, a general moderate Republican make-up, and the amount of spending, Romney is the anticipated winner in this one.

Illinois is one of the few remaining states that have a “loophole primary.”  The blog Frontloading HQ has a great explanation of what this means and the history of it.

It was previously an invention used by some states to get around Democratic Party rules requiring proportional allocation of delegates, but now only remains in Illinois and Pennsylvania Republican primaries.  Basically, in a loophole primary the votes for the actual Presidential candidate are meaningless advisory votes.  What counts is the votes for the delegates who are elected directly on the ballot.  The Presidential preference of the delegate is listed on the ballot, but they are not bound.  A recognizable name might attract more votes, so the campaign who has more well-known establishment support benefits.

It’s a long way of saying that the primary favors Romney who has a better political machine and delegate ground game.

On top of this, it is no surprise that the home state of President Obama has a relatively moderate Republican Party, which is where Romney does well.  If Illinois trends like the other states that have voted, look for Romney to run up high numbers, particularly in the Chicago area with Santorum doing better in the rural parts of the state.

Also, as with other states, Romney has greatly outspent Santorum by a 7-to-1 margin, according to Politico.  In the Chicago area, this rises to a 21-to-1 advantage.

All this translates to a big night for Romney, but don’t expect this to change much as the long slog continues on.  Louisiana votes on Saturday and it looks to be a likely win for Santorum.

For Arkansas, the math is now such that the primary cannot be settled before we vote on May 22.  Even if Romney were to win every single delegate between now and then (which is not possible), he would still be short of the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

The big question as to whether Arkansas matters hinges on Santorum: will he stay in for that long?  It looks likely to me assuming he can continue to score some wins in states such as Louisiana, Wisconsin, and his home state of Pennsylvania which votes between now and then.

The other big question is: does Newt Gingrich drop out?  A Politico report today indicates he has serious money problems.  I could easily see him dropping out if he has a poor showing in Louisiana on Saturday, which his campaign has pointed to as the halftime mark.