Arkansas House: The Battle for 51

I wrote last week about the battle for control of the Arkansas Senate as Republicans seek to take a majority with 18 seats and Democrats try their best to prevent this.  A similar situation exists in the House, which is admittedly more difficult to get a handle on with about three times as many seats.

Currently, Republicans hold 46 seats in the House.  Assuming they can hold all these seats, then they will need to pick up 5 seats to take the majority in 2013.  Most Republicans believe this is likely as around 36 Republican incumbents will run for re-election and around 10 or 12 open districts could be decided by the winner of the Republican primary with no general election opponent for the Democrats.

In addition, there are around ten districts where Republicans believe they have a strong chance of picking up the seat.

• Stuttgart businessman Garland Derden is running as a Republican for District 13, which is open as the incumbent, Democrat Rep. Tiffany Rogers, is running for State Senate District 28 against incumbent Republican Sen. Jonathan Dismang.  Derden owns Derden Heating and Cooling in Stuttgart and has broad community support. Word is even Rogers turned out for his announcement earlier this month.  No opponent has announced.
• Sheridan timberland manager Ken Bragg is seeking District 15 where Democrat incumbent Rep. Bobby Pierce is term-limited.  Although some Democrats – such as Grant County Judge Kemp Nall – have shown interest in running, no one other than Bragg has announced.
• In Ozark, the Assistant Superintendent of the Ozark Public Schools Bill Gossage is seeking to challenge incumbent Democrat Rep. Leslee Post of Ozark.  Although this district changed quite a bit due to redistricting, Post only received about 41 percent of the vote in her election in 2010 by some estimates, but won when her opponent was declared ineligible.  That is all in the past, but the point is this is a strong Republican area.
• Walnut Ridge farmer Ronald Cavenaugh is hoping to pick up the seat for Republicans from Democratic incumbent Rep. James Ratliff.   Cavenaugh ran as a Democrat in 2010, when he narrowly lost in a runoff against Ratliff.
• Ashdown financial adviser Daniel Linnett is hoping to turn the far southwest corner of the state red. He is seeking District 4, where incumbent Democrat Rep. Larry Cowling is term-limited.  Democrat Fonda Hawthorne is also running for this district.
• Up in Paragould, Greene County Republican JP Wes Eddington is hoping to pick up the seat open from term-limited Democratic Rep. Billy Gaskill in District 57. Paragould attorney Mary Broadaway is also seeking this seat.
• Republican Gregg Meggs, band director at UAM in Monticello, plans to challenge incumbent Democratic Rep. Sheila Lampkin.  You may recall that Lampkin had her endorsement from Arkansas Right to Life pulled during the session after Lampkin voted to kill a measure that would have banned taxpayer-funded abortions in Arkansas under ObamaCare.
• Dwight Hoyle is another party switcher from Democrat to Republican. Hoyle lost in a runoff to incumbent Rep. Betty Overbey by only 26 votes.  Hoyle will square off in a rematch this year in the general election for District 69, which covers Clarksville.
• Republican Hempstead County Election Commissioner Sharon Wright of Hope will seek to fill open District 3, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Bubba Powers is term-limited. Democrat Brent Talley, communications director at the UA Community College at Hope, has also announced for the seat.
• I am also told Republicans are recruiting heavily in open District 10 in the Rison/Star City area, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Toni Bradford is term-limited. Star City Mayor Gene Yarbrough and farmer Dorothy Hall have both announced for the seat as Democrats.

There are also a handful of seats where Republicans will have to play defense to hold the district.

• Republican Rep. Jon Hubbard from Jonesboro drew the angst of many Democrats under the dome, by being one of the most outspoken of the new representatives elected as part of the tea party movement.  As such, Democrats have recruited Jonesboro insurance agent Harold Copenhaver to oppose him.
• Republican Rep. Mark Biviano of Searcy is also in the Democrats’ crosshairs.  Biviano was chairman of the Freshman House Caucus and fought hard against the implementation of the health care exchanges as part of ObamaCare.  Searcy Police Chief Kyle Osborne will oppose him as a Democrat.  You may recall that Biviano was in a fender bender outside the Capital Hotel last year. I suspect the Democrats will use this as their primary line of attack on Biviano in this election.
• Republican Rep. Loy Mauch of Bismark will also have an opponent in the general election as several Democrats have expressed interest in District 26, including Malvern City Attorney David Kizzia who has officially announced.  Look for Democrats to paint Mauch as a Confederate sympathizer.
• Democrats will also target Republican Rep. Charlie Collins, who pulled off an upset victory in 2010 against then incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim House.  Democrats believe District 84 is favorable for their numbers and will try to retake this seat with Fayetteville city council member Adella Gray.
• You could also see some other Republicans draw challengers from areas of the state where Democrats see their numbers as favorable, such as in District 61 in northeast Arkansas.  You might recall Republican Rep. Lori Benedict was drawn into the same district with then-Democratic Rep. Linda Collins-Smith. Collins-Smith has since switched parties and is running against Democratic Sen. David Wyatt.  Pocahontas farmer and businessman Scott Baltz is believed to be considering getting in this House race as a Democrat.

See any that we have missed? Drop me a line at [email protected] to let me know.  You can also look for an updated House and Senate candidate listing soon from us at Talk Business.