Watching Iowa From Arkansas

The next couple of days will lead to major events in Iowa impacting the Republican 2012 Presidential race, including tonight’s Fox News debate and the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday. 

We have already seen Mitt Romney have an interesting "Corporations are people, my friend" moment with a heckler at the state fair, which sort of reminded me of Charlton Heston in Soylent Green.  Tomorrow, Sarah Palin will be making a surprise stop on her bus tour.  It is not completely clear exactly why – something about preferring fried butter-on-a-stick to peas.  Mike Huckabee will also be making the round airing his Fox News show live and playing the bass guitar at the booths of candidates that he likes.

Here is my take on how the events can affect the candidates from a right-leaning blogger located 600 miles away.  For insight from Iowa bloggers, I would recommend Iowa Independent and Iowa Republican.

Michelle Bachmann – Expectations for Bachmann are sky-high going down the stretch.  Since the last debate a couple of weeks ago, she has become the Iowa "non-Romney" front-runner.  Anything less than a first-place finish in the straw poll and a solid debate performance could burst her bubble.

Ron Paul – Mark my words, Paul will do well at the straw poll.  His supporters are die-hard and would walk through walls to vote for him.  The problem for Paul is that he shows no signs of being able to attract support from the other 80 to 90 percent of the party.  His supporters will have a big weekend, but it very well could be the high point of their campaign.

Tim Pawlenty – In my opinion, this weekend is "make-or-break" for Pawlenty.  He has completely fallen off the map in the last couple of months and a poor showing in Thursday’s debate and/or the straw poll will all but end his chances.  However, unlike Bachmann, the expectations for Pawlenty are very low.  A third place finish could be a glimmer of hope that keeps him alive for another day, but anything less and he really ought to drop out.

Breakout candidates – There is a chance for a long list of candidates to surprise folks with a strong showing.  Rick Santorum probably stands the best chance of doing this as he appeals to the socially conservative Iowa Republican voter.  Herman Cain could get a small boost from the FairTax group, although they are not providing him anywhere close to the support they provided Huckabee four years ago.  Newt Gingrich could also surprise people, but I doubt it.  I have not figured out why he is still running.

Mitt Romney – Romney is still the national frontrunner, but is making the conscious decision to ignore Iowa.  After tonight’s debate, he is leaving Iowa and heading to New Hampshire.  Iowans do not like to be ignored and he will probably pay the price at the straw poll.

Rick Perry – The elephant not in the room is Perry.  Virtually everyone expects him to announce he is running for President at blogger Erik Erikson’s RedState Gathering in South Carolina on Saturday around 1:00 EST, which is about the same time the speeches begin at the Iowa Straw Poll (see schedule here.)  Perry is polling well, raising a ton of money, and building out a campaign team.  Will he get in the race and become a frontrunner to rival Romney or will he be this cycle’s Fred Thompson?

It’s going to be fun to watch.  Make sure and follow my live-blogging twitter account @HyperTolbert if you want my live blog comments on all the debate performances and the events this weekend.