UA study has 1% tax vote angle

Results of a recent voting behavior study suggest a steep climb for those seeking Fort Smith voter approval of a 1% prepared food tax.

Shayne Henry, a graduate student at the University of Arkansas, and Dan Smith at the University of Florida conducted two studies which “provided compelling evidence” that citizens who sign ballot petitions have a higher percentage (about 20%) of voter turnout.

Henry used “Know Thy Neighbor,” an online database of names and addresses of registered voters who sign a petition, to track voters. The database helped compare a random sample of 500 registered Arkansas voters to the 85,389 signatures that placed Act 1 on the 2008 ballot. The initiated act restricted adoption and foster care in Arkansas to married couples.

Henry and Smith also reviewed the status of 71,119 voters during a 2009 municipal election in Gainesville, Fla. Prior to that election, about 6,000 city voters signed a petition against an ordinance that extended civil rights to gay and transgendered people. The results of that research found that “functionally inactive” voters who hadn’t voted in previous elections were twice as likely to vote in the election if they were one of the 6,000 who had signed the petition.

“It’s really fascinating to see how people think, and how they turn out, when issues are close to home,” Henry said. “Political parties have invested so much in the idea that you can energize your base around core values, but this has never been pushed or tested. It turns out that this idea is true.”

If true, the five Fort Smith City Directors who say they will actively campaign for passage of the 1% prepared food tax and other tax supporters will begin the effort with a clear disadvantage.

The tax was approved by the board in February as a solution to an annual deficit with Fort Smith Convention Center operations when $1.8 million in annual state turnback money dried up. The state turnback program — which supported expansion or construction of tourism facilities — ended for Fort Smith in June 2010. The center has since operated on a reserve fund.

The last few months have included a petition drive to force the tax to an election and a court hearing that essentially overturned the city’s rejection of the petition drive. The board is expected to soon consider an ordinance that would repeal the original 1% prepared food tax ordinance, re-adopt the 1% prepared food tax and submit the measure to the people in a referendum, which would likely take place in November.

During the first petition round, the Citizens for Responsible Taxation submitted 4,674 signatures to Fort Smith City Clerk Sherri Gard. In a second round, mandated by a ruling from Sebastian County Circuit Court Judge Michael Fitzhugh, the group submitted 5,129 signatures. The group needs 2,822 valid signatures to force an election on the 1% tax.

It is unclear how many duplicates or invalid signatures are part of the 9,803 total signatures. Gard said Friday (July 22) that her office “is very close” to a determination on the number of valid signatures and may issue a statement early this week.

However, even if half of the signatures are invalid, the number would represent a body of voters more motivated — according to the UA study — than voters who did not sign petitions. Also, the number is considerably higher than the 2,632 who votes in a 2009 special election. That election saw voters approve — by a margin of 9 to 1 — continuation of a 1% tax to fund another $30 million in wet weather sewer work.

Sebastian County Election Coordinator Jerry Huff predicts the events surrounding the 1% prepared food tax issue will create greater voter turnout than the 2009 special election.

“In my opinion, there will be a higher turnout. There is no question about that. With the bonds, it was a renewal of an existing tax, but this is a new tax,” Huff said.

The 2010 general election race between then Fort Smith Mayor Ray Baker and Sandy Sanders drew 18,800 votes.