Preseason Predictions Mean Big Business for Magazines (Opinion)

Northwest Arkansas

by Talk Business & Politics ([email protected]) July 25, 2011 12:00 am 49 views 

Only big-money schools have a chance to win the national championship.

How many times have you heard that, particularly pertaining to the NCAA’s Bowl Championship Series system? Odds are more than a few.

Admittedly there is a lot of truth in that statement. Of the 11 schools that have won BCS national title games, only three don’t rank among the top 25 in net revenue. One of those, USC, ranks 26th.

That’s according to the U.S. Department of Education’s Equity in Athletics report for the 2008-09 school year.

There’s also the fact three of the top five moneymakers – Texas, Florida and LSU – have combined to win five of the 13 championships. Add Alabama (seventh) and Ohio State (10th), and you get two more titles.

Still, three other schools – Auburn (12th), Oklahoma (15th) and Tennessee (17th) – have managed to win BCS championships from deeper in the pack. That pushes the number of non top-10 winners to six of 13, or essentially half.

Arkansas, in case you’re wondering, is sandwiched between Oklahoma and Tennessee at 16th.

 

Preseason Prediction

College football fans these days can satiate their appetites for preseason rankings well before August. Four of the heavyweights in the college preview niche, for example, had their books on shelves by mid-July.

Want to see if your team is thought of as top 25-worthy? Athlon Sports is ready to tell you. So are Phil Steele’s College Football Preview, The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.

The previews are profitable, plain and simple. Lindy Davis, the aptly named publisher of Lindy’s, was quoted as saying his group’s Southeastern Conference preview performs the best per capita among its 12-magazine lineup.

Using all of that as a thin disguise to rekindle one of the favorite parts of a past professional life, here’s Keeping Score’s guess at Arkansas football, 2011-style.

  • Sept. 3 vs. Missouri State: All you need to know about the Bears is three of their five victories last season came against directional schools. The most interesting part of this game, in fact, might be comparing it to what happens when Missouri State heads to Oregon two weeks later. Arkansas, 55-17
  • Sept. 10 vs.New Mexico in Little Rock: Fayetteville, Little Rock, Albuquerque, Mars, it won’t matter. The Lobos went 1-11 last year and will pick up another “L” here. Arkansas, 34-7
  • Sept. 17 vs. Troy: The Trojans open at Clemson, then get an extra week to get ready for Arkansas. Always a trendy pick to pull an upset, reality hasn’t been kind to Troy. The Trojans are 0-8 against SEC teams over the last six seasons. Arkansas 27-15
  • Sept. 24 at Alabama: No facts or figures here, just a gut feeling Bobby Petrino is due to break through against Bama. Arkansas, 20-17
  • Oct. 1 vs.Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas: This game sets up as the biggest trap on the Hogs’ schedule – square between what are sure to be emotional monsters of games against Alabama and Auburn. Maybe Texas A&M is the team due to break through in this one. Texas A&M 27, Arkansas 24
  • Oct. 8 vs.Auburn: If A&M represents the biggest trap, Auburn might be the most important game of Arkansas’ season. It ends a three-game stretch sure to set the tone for the stretch run. Arkansas 23, Auburn 21
  • Oct. 22 atOle Miss: A week off before playing the Rebs should be a good thing. Arkansas 27, Ole Miss 17
  • Oct. 29 atVanderbilt: Road trip, anyone? If so, don’t leave Nashville without a late-night beverage or two at Tootsie’s. Arkansas, 30-14
  • Nov. 5 vs.South Carolina: The biggest homecoming game since Auburn stole one from the Hogs in 2003? History repeats itself. South Carolina 24, Arkansas 17
  • Nov. 12 vs.Tennessee: The last time the Vols visited the Ozarks, Darren McFadden gave Hog fans an unforgettable Fayetteville night. History repeats itself again, without McFadden. Arkansas 21, Tennessee 20
  • Nov. 19 vs. Mississippi State in Little Rock: You won’t catch me betting against the Hogs at War Memorial. Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 16
  • Nov. 25 atLSU: You won’t catch me betting against LSU at Death Valley, either. LSU, 24-10.

So, there it is: Arkansas goes a perfectly respectable 9-3 and keeps Petrino Fever running high.