Cook: Palin not likely to seek White House in 2012

Editor’s note: Roby Brock, with our content partner Talk Business, wrote this report. He can be reached at [email protected]

Political analyst Charlie Cook told a Little Rock audience that he thinks Democrats will make gains in the U.S. House of Representatives, but not take control.

Cook, author of the famed “Cook Political Report,” also said the margin of control in the U.S. Senate, currently held by Democrats, is too close to call at this stage of the election.

Cook was speaking to a crowd of politicos at the central Arkansas Political Animals Club held at the Electric Cooperatives of Arkansas headquarters in southwest Little Rock.

He told the group that Republicans were likely to keep a slim majority in the House, where they hold a 24-seat advantage. In the Senate, there are more than twice as many Democrats up for re-election as Republicans — a fact Cook said was likely to result in Democratic losses if frustrated voters oust incumbents.

Cook said next year’s Presidential election will be a referendum on President Barack Obama and not necessarily a decision on the eventual GOP nominee.

"If you could tell me today what the economy will be doing in November 2012 or who the Republican nominee would be, I’d rather know what the economy will look like," Cook said.

The Cook Political Report handicaps a number of state and federal races based on research and predictions. Cook shared thoughts on several GOP contenders for President next year.

He does not think Sarah Palin will enter the race, citing her money-making ventures with Fox News and public speeches.

Cook warned the audience not to underestimate U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minnesota, a Tea Party darling. Cook said, "She has good political skills and is formidable."

Cook saw potential problems for the much-hyped entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican field. He said the country may still be suffering from "Texas fatigue," referencing the 8-year Bush term.

In the end, Republicans may have to make a choice of "following their hearts" or "going with a candidate that polls Obama closely." He said that could ultimately dictate the GOP nomination of a Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty.

The political prognosticator also outlined Obama’s re-election strategy. He said the Obama campaign is worried about states in the nation’s Rust Belt, such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana. North Carolina, another state Obama won in 2008, may also be problematic for the incumbent President in 2012.

Overall, Cook said he expects the final outcome to be very close in the electoral college vote with the economy being the unspoken candidate in the race.

Link here to hear Cook’s comments on Palin by video at the bottom of this post, courtesy of Talk Business contributor Jason Tolbert.