So How Democratic Is Washington County?

One of the primary arguments between those involved in the great "Fayetteville to the Fourth" Congressional redistricting debate is that the map pulls a large number of Democrats – even liberal Democrats – from the Third District into the Fourth.

 

But how Democratic are voters in the Washington County precincts in question?

 

An analysis of 2010 election returns for the 54 Washington County precincts in the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" map sends a mixed signal.

 

Gov. Mike Beebe won handily in the precincts over GOP challenger Jim Keet by a 13,053 to 6,214 margin. Green Party nominee Jim Lendall recorded 609 votes in one of the few areas of the state with a concentration of Green Party voters.

 

That equates to Beebe pulling 66% to Keet’s 31% and Lendall’s 3%. Beebe outperformed his statewide percentage of 64.4% in the Washington County precincts and Keet underperformed his statewide percentage by a small margin, about 2.5% below.

 

Clearly, a sign of some Democratic strength.

 

But Democratic Third District Congressional nominee David Whitaker and incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln didn’t fare so well in the bastion of Democratic voters, although both did better than their districtwide or statewide performances.

 

GOP Cong. Steve Womack handily defeated Whitaker by a 11,375 to 8,440 margin, or 57% to 43%.  Certainly, the 43% Whitaker received is far better than his 28% district-wide performance, but still a sub-par showing for a Fayetteville resident Democrat.

 

Lincoln only pulled 42% of the vote – 8,359 votes – in her Senate re-election bid against GOP candidate and then-3rd District Cong. John Boozman, who received 53% or 10,612 votes. Nearby Mayor of Greenland John Gray, the Green Party nominee, scored 681 votes, or 3.4% of the vote, with the rest going to Independent Trevor Drown.

 

For Lincoln, her 42% was an improvement on her statewide 37% performance.

 

Of course, there are some stronger Democratic performing metropolitan regions in the state. For instance, Beebe carried Jefferson County with 78% of the vote and Lincoln garnered 60%. In Pulaski County, Beebe pulled 70%, while Lincoln settled at just over 51%.

 

The numbers in southern Washington County do show that Democrats perform better in these precincts than their districtwide or statewide percentages — not by much in some instances. They also show that Republicans can win the precincts in question by sizable margins.  It may just depend on the candidate.