Census data released; Fort Smith population up 7.4%

Fort Smith’s population grew by 7.4% between 2000 and 2010, with the city remaining Arkansas’ second largest behind Little Rock.

However, if growth trends continue, Fort Smith could fall to the third or fourth largest city by 2020.

The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday (Feb. 10) released detailed data for Arkansas that highlights a number of dramatic increases and decreases in the state’s population — key factors in upcoming political redistricting. The data also examines race, Hispanic origin, and voting age information at the precinct and county level. (See maps below.)

The official 2010 Census Redistricting Data Summary File will be used to redraw federal, state and local legislative districts in Arkansas. State lawmakers will first reset Congressional district lines, while legislative redistricting will take place secondarily.

Sebastian County remained the fourth most populous county (125,744) in Arkansas, and Crawford County remained the 12th most populous county with 61,948 residents in 2010.

In Sebastian County, 76.6% of the population was white, 6.3% was black, 4.05% identified as Asian. Crawford County population was 89% white, 1.17% black and 1.44% Asian.

Population in Arkansas grew from 2,673,400 in 2000 to 2,915,918 in 2010, a 9.1% increase.

Today’s data release updates the five most populous incorporated places and their 2010 Census counts.
• Little Rock — 193,524
• Fort Smith — 86,209
• Fayetteville — 73,580
• Springdale — 69,797
• Jonesboro — 67,263

Little Rock grew by 5.7% since the 2000 Census. Fort Smith grew by 7.4%, Fayetteville grew by 26.8%, Springdale grew by 52.4%, and Jonesboro by 21.2%.

While he proudly noted that the city is still the second largest city by about 13,000 people, Fort Smith City Administrator Ray Gosack said the relatively slow rate of population growth is a concern on several levels.

“That is somewhat of a concern. Fortunately we have done infrastructure planning and growth planning to provide the services and land area for growth. But what we have to focus on is job creation. Without job creation, we won’t have growth,” Gosack explained.

A city rate of population growth less than Sebastian County and the state also means the city will see a decline in tax revenue and turnback funds. State turnback money and disbursements from collection of the Sebastian County one-cent tax are made on a per capita basis. In the 2011 budget, state turnback money into the general fund is roughly $1.25 million. Turnback funds from the motor fuel tax — which may only be used for street maintenance — to the city in 2011 are estimated at $3.8 million.

The biggest hit will come from the countywide sales tax. Fort Smith’s proceeds from that tax, estimated to generate $15.3 million in 2011, may see an annual decline of $300,000, Gosack said. The countywide tax proceeds represent about 40% of the city’s general fund, and are primarily used to support the police and fire departments.

The largest county in Arkansas remains Pulaski County with a population of 382,748. Its population grew by 5.9% since 2000. The other counties in the top five with their increase in population by percentage are:
• Benton County — 221,339 (+44.3%)
• Washington County — 203,065 (+28.8%)
• Sebastian County — 125,744 (+9.3%)
• Faulkner County — 113,237 (+31.6%)

The Census data also shows substantial population losses in 36 of the state’s 75 counties. Thirty-four of those 36 counties experiencing population losses are in the First and Fourth Congressional districts.

The Arkansas General Assembly will look to move roughly 115,000 voters from the Third Congressional District into the First and Fourth Districts, while the Second Congressional District will lose approximately 15,000 voters.

The state’s white population has risen by 5% during the last decade and accounts for 77% of the total Arkansas population. African-Americans have increased by 7.4% and total 15.4% of the state’s citizenry. The Latino population in Arkansas has risen by 114.2% during the last 10 years to account for 6.4% of the state’s total population.

Clint Reed, a Talk Business contributor and GOP political consultant, said in this report that the dramatic loss of population in southeast Arkansas — a Democratic stronghold — and the dramatic population increases in Republican-trending northwest Arkansas and suburban central Arkansas bodes well for GOP future fortunes.

"This solidifies the long term problem the Democratic Party in Arkansas is faced with," said Reed.

He also noted the growth in the state’s Hispanic population, which now accounts for 6.4% of the state’s overall population.

"It will be interesting to see where this is concentrated and if it will carry any political consequences," Reed added.