The Consumer Compass Report: Residents more optimistic about economy

Editor’s note: This is the third of four reports related to The City Wire’s The Compass Report. The Compass Report, presented by Benefit Bank, is the first comprehensive quarterly analysis of the Fort Smith Regional Economy. The Compass Report will be released Thursday (Dec. 2). Link here for the first article in the series, and link here for the second article.

People in the Fort Smith region are more positive about their personal financial condition and the future of the regional economy than they were 90 days ago, according to the third-quarter 2010 The Consumer Compass survey.

In the inaugural survey conducted Aug. 31, 11.5% and 41% of respondents said their financial condition was better off and worse, respectively, than a year ago. The numbers moved in a more optimistic direction in the survey conducted Nov. 29, with 12.5% and 40% of respondents saying their financial condition was better off and worse, respectively, than a year ago.

The survey, conducted for The City Wire by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College, is a supplement to The Compass Report — the first comprehensive economic analysis of the Fort Smith region launched by The City Wire and presenting sponsor Benefit Bank in the first quarter of 2009. Other sponsors of The Compass Report are Cox Communications, the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce and the Phoenix Expo Trade & Event Center.

In the almost 90 days between the surveys, attitudes in the region also improved with respect to those who see their financial condition improving in the next 12 months. In the recent survey, 16% said their finances would improve, with only 14.5% as optimistic in the late August survey.

Also, 19.5% of respondents in the Nov. 29 survey said they believe the Fort Smith regional economy will be better in the next 12 months, up from the 15% in the Aug. 31 survey.

However, a majority (67.5%) of regional residents say the regional economy will be worse (31.5%) or the same (36%) in the next year. That is an improvement over the 76% in late August who said the regional economy would be worse (40%) or the same (36%) in the next year.

Roby Brock, executive editor of Talk Business, offered the following observations on the poll results:
• It appears that Fort Smith area residents are feeling less negative about local and state economic conditions.

• We saw a measurable shift — not huge, but significant — from respondents when asked about current and future local business conditions and their own personal financial situations. They clearly don't view these categories as negatively as last quarter, but they are still largely uncertain about economic prospects. Their opinions have shifted slightly to the positive, but I would caution there is still not much optimism about the economy.

• The most positive response we received in this poll was only 20.5% favorable (state business environment). That still suggests pretty lackluster enthusiasm.

• I would attribute some of the positive shift to the perception that their economic situations may be improving to a small degree as well as the recent election cycle, which resulted in significant changes at the local and state level. The national mood swing we saw from voters doesn't seem to have persuaded Fort Smith area residents that U.S. conditions have or will improve in the near-term.

POLL BACKGROUND
This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Nov. 29, among 640 residents in the Fort Smith region (Crawford, Franklin, Logan and Sebastian counties). Our random sample of potential respondents came from a pool of more than 18,000 residents. The poll was not weighted for any particular characteristics.

COMPLETE SURVEY RESULTS
The Consumer Compass Report — The City Wire
Conducted by Talk Business Research & Hendrix College on Nov. 29, 2010
640 Respondents in the Greater Fort Smith Region
Margin of Error +/- 3.9%

Q1.  How would you describe your personal financial situation? Are you better off financially, worse off, or about the same as you were one year ago?
12.5%    Better
40%    Worse
43%    Same
4.5%    Don’t know

Q2.  Now looking ahead — do you think that one year from now your personal financial situation will be better off, worse off, or about the same?
16%    Better
30%    Worse
41%    Same
13%    Don’t know

Q3.  Turning to business conditions in the Fort Smith region as a whole — do you think that during the next year, local business conditions will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
19.5%    Better
31.5%    Worse
36%    Same
13%    Don’t know

Q4.  What about the U.S. economy?  During the next year, do you think business conditions in the United States will get better, get worse or stay about the same?
19.5%    Better
46.5%    Worse
25%    Same
9%    Don’t know

Q5.  Considering the regional business environment, do you believe the actions and policies of county and local governments in the Fort Smith region are good for business and job growth, bad for business and job growth, or somewhere in between?
12.5%    Good
44%    OK, but could be better
28%    Bad
15.5%    Don’t know

Q6.  Considering the state business environment, do you believe the actions and policies of state government officials — elected and appointed — are good for business and job growth, bad for business and job growth, or somewhere in between?
20.5%    Good
35.5%    OK, but could be better
29%    Bad
15%    Don’t know

Q7.  Considering the national business environment, do you believe the actions and policies of federal government officials — elected and appointed — are good for business and job growth, bad for business and job growth or somewhere in between?
8.5%    Good
41.5%    OK, but could be better
38%    Bad
12%    Don’t know

NOTES ON RAW DATA
Age
1.5%    Under the age of 30
8.5%    Between the ages of 30 and 44
42%    Between the ages of 45 and 64
48%    65 or older

Ethnicity
2.5%    African American
1%    Asian American
92%    Caucasian or White
2%    Latino
2.5%    Other

Household Income
57.5%    Less than $50,000
22%    $50,000 – $75,000
12.5%    $75,001 – $100,000
8%    More than $100,000

Education
27.5%    High school degree or less
34.5%    High school degree and some college, but no degree
9.5%    Two-year (associate’s) degree
18.5%    Four-year college degree
10%    Masters degree or higher

Gender
37%    Male
63%    Female