The Arkansas Election Line: Final ratings call

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Matt Campbell (Blue Hog Report) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

Heading into the final weekend before Election Day, the Arkansas Election Line reviews its ranking of political match-ups and makes one significant change.

In the race for the U.S. Congress, Dist. 1, the Arkansas Election Line moves the race between Republican Rick Crawford and Democrat Chad Causey from "Leans Crawford" to "Toss-up."

At this juncture of the campaign, its anyone’s call. Causey has certainly closed the gap and appears to have substantial momentum in his corner. Crawford has also been better funded than any previous Republican challenger for this seat and the firepower of national conservative groups that have peppered Causey with negative TV and radio ads has improved his chances.

Te other AEL ratings remain intact. They are:
U.S. Senate: Safe U.S. Rep. John Boozman (R)

U.S. Congress, Dist. 2: Safe Tim Griffin (R)


U.S. Congress, Dist. 3: Safe Steve Womack (R)


U.S. Congress, Dist. 4: Safe U.S. Rep. Mike Ross (D)


Governor: Safe Gov. Mike Beebe (D)


Lt. Governor: Toss Up (race between State Sen. Shane Broadway, the Democrat, and Republican Mark Darr)

Secretary of State: Toss Up (race between State Rep. Mark Martin, the Republican, and Democrat Pat O’Brien)

Land Commissioner: Toss Up (race between Democrat L.J. Bryant and Republican John Thurston)

Link here for more details on the ratings change for the 1st Congressional District.