Mayor Ray Baker ahead in mayoral race voter survey

Editor’s note: This is the second of three stories based on a recent The City Wire Election 2010 survey of 600 likely Fort Smith voters. Poll results from the Fort Smith mayoral race and two city director elections (Position 5 and 6) will be released Friday. Results from respondents about the convention center and the city form of government will be released Monday (Oct. 25). Link here for the first story in the series.

Fort Smith Mayor Ray Baker’s physical ailments don’t yet appear to be translating into a political ailment.

Baker, 71, who seeks a sixth, four-year term as mayor, is being challenged by Mr. Sandy Sanders, 66. Sanders has said the mayor needs to do more to boost economic development, while Baker has said Fort Smith’s form of government (manager-council) limits the mayor’s job to largely ceremonial work.

In the first ever professional survey of the mayor race, The City Wire Election 2010 Poll shows Baker with a 42% to 34% lead over Sanders. The survey of 600 likely voters in Fort Smith also showed that 24% remain undecided. The survey has a +4%/-4% margin of error.

The City Wire Election 2010 Poll also shows Pam Weber and City Director Kevin Settle ahead in the races for Fort Smith City Director, Position 5, and Fort Smith City Director, Position 6, respectively. (The City Director, Position 4, race was not surveyed because the position represents a ward, and would have required a separate survey.)

Roby Brock, owner of Talk Business Research, said Baker’s lead is not out of reach for Sanders.

“Mayor Ray Baker has a plurality of voter support, but only leads challenger Sandy Sanders by 8 percentage points in our poll, 42-34%. With 24% undecided, there is potential for much movement in this race and there would appear to be a high number of voters considering both leaders for the mayor’s post,” Brock explained. “If Sanders is to be successful, he will need to offer persuasive arguments in these final two weeks to convince voters that he has a more appealing vision for the future of Fort Smith than Baker.”

Baker’s lead is not surprising considering his past popularity, but it does come during a time when recurring hospital stays have limited his campaign appearances.

In fact, Baker was interviewed Thursday (Oct. 21) by phone from his hospital room at St. Edward Mercy Medical Center. Baker said he expected to be released Thursday afternoon, and would attend a Friday (Oct. 22) mayoral forum conducted by the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce.

This hospital stay to control an infection will have lasted more than a week if he is released Thursday. Previously, Baker entered St. Edward Mercy Medical on Aug. 18 with severe dehydration and was released around Sept. 13. However, he has not attended city board meetings since the Sept. 13 release.

The recent hospitalization is Baker’s third in the past 11 months. He entered the hospital Nov. 15, 2009, after becoming weak from an infection. Baker was in the hospital several days to recuperate and convalesce after the illness. Baker successfully underwent surgery and chemo for colon cancer in late 2007.

What does Baker think of the survey results?

“It’s a very interesting bit of information to have,” Baker said during the phone interview.

He is not surprised by the number of undecided in the mayor’s race, saying he doesn’t think “the people have fully studied” the races. He trusts they will take a closer look before voting.

As to what he will do to convince the undecideds to vote for him, Baker says he plans to keep reminding voters of his accomplishments in office.

“I don’t have a lot of money to spend on a campaign,” Baker said. “(I) just have to keep plugging away at what I’ve done (as mayor). My Lord, if people don’t know me by now.”

Sanders was surprised by Baker’s lead, but said his experience on the campaign trail causes him to believe the undecided voters will swing the election his way.

“Every day I’m out in the community meeting as many voters as possible and I feel very confident about the race. The response to my campaign has been extremely positive from people throughout the city,” Sanders noted. “There’s still a lot of ground to cover between now and the election, and every day I will continue  meeting with people and listening to them. I believe they will choose an experienced leader and vote for Sandy Sanders.”

Sanders added that he is “looking forward to noon Friday for the first chance for us to be side by side to talk about our positions.”

CITY DIRECTOR RACES
In the City Director, Position 5 race, Pam Weber had a 29%-11% lead over Juan Martinez. However, 60% are undecided in the race.

The race for City Director, Position 6, also has a large undecided response. In that race, City Director Kevin Settle has a 36%-10.5% margin over Eric Arthur, with 53.5% undecided.

Although the survey suggests Weber and Settle have the edge in their races, the atmosphere of a general election often moves the focus away from local races. Brock said the high number of undecideds in the two races is not unusual.

“In a high population city like Fort Smith, there are a lot of higher profile campaigns as well as other distractions that can cause voters to lose focus on local elections. Municipal races are an example, especially since there is no party identification to guide voters in their choices,” Brock explained. “My sense from a read of the poll is that voters have still not fully engaged in these local city director races and may make their decisions during the final days of the campaign when there is more urgency for a decision or as they are casting their ballots for U.S. Senate or Governor on Election Day. A last minute glimpse of a sign, a request from a friend, or the recollection of a direct mail piece may make the difference in some of those races.”

POLL BACKGROUND
This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Oct. 19, among 600 registered voters in the Fort Smith city limits who indicated they were likely to vote in the November elections. Our random sample of potential respondents came from a pool of 7,538 registered voters residing in the Fort Smith city limits.

The demographic breakdown for The City Wire Election 2010 survey was:
• Age
4%: Under the age of 30
11%: Between the ages of 30 and 44
40.5%: Between the Ages of 45 and 64
44.5%: 65 or older

• Ethnicity
3%: African-American
4%: Asian-American
87%: Caucasian or White
2%: Latino
4%: Other

• Gender
54%: Male
46%: Female